England v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 42
21 February 2026Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 14:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.6 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Joe Heyes
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Ben Earl+3.7
- 8Henry Pollock
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Henry Arundell
- 12Fraser Dingwall
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Bevan Rodd
- 18Trevor Davison
- 19Alex Coles-2.3
- 20Guy Pepper
- 21Sam Underhill+3.4
- 22Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 23Marcus Smith-0.6
Ireland
- 1Jeremy Loughman
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Robert Baloucoune
- 15Jamie Osborne
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Nick Timoney
- 20Cian Prendergast
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Ciarán Frawley
- 23Tommy O'Brien
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 64.0% | Territory | 36.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 149 | Carries | 119 |
| 474m | Carry metres | 405m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 8 |
| 29 | Defenders beaten | 29 |
| 5 | Offloads | 10 |
| 193 | Passes | 165 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 131 | Tackles made | 181 |
| 71.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 29 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 29 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 11 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 88.0% | Lineout success | 90.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 71.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 100 | Rucks won | 86 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 31 |
| 373m | Kick metres | 851m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 13 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 3 | Conversions | 4 |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.