Wales v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
31 – 17
14 March 2026Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Italy
- Kick-off
- 16:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 4.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rhys Carré-1.2
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 5Ben Carter
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7James Botham+3.8
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Edwards
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Joe Hawkins
- 13Eddie James
- 14Ellis Mee
- 15Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Archie Griffin+9.9
- 19Adam Beard+1.0
- 20Olly Cracknell
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Jarrod Evans
- 23Blair Murray
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Muhamed Hasa
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Michele Lamaro
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Lorenzo Pani
Replacements
- 16Tommaso Di Bartolomeo
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 20David Odiase
- 21Stephen Varney-4.1
- 22Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 23Tommaso Allan-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 101 | Carries | 104 |
| 291m | Carry metres | 445m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 5 | Offloads | 8 |
| 150 | Passes | 157 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | Tackles made | 116 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 86.0% | Lineout success | 77.0% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 76 | Rucks won | 74 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 729m | Kick metres | 724m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.