New Zealand v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 17
11 July 2026Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v Italy
- Kick-off
- 05:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 8.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Sam Darry
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 7Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Ruben Love
- 11Leroy Carter
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Billy Proctor
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17George Bower+1.1
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Josh Lord-2.2
- 20Anton Segner
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Josh Moorby
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Tommaso Di Bartolomeo
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Ross Vintcent
- 7Michele Lamaro
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Malik Faissal
- 15Tommaso Allan-3.0
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Muhamed Hasa
- 19Giulio Marini
- 20Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 21Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 22Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 23Leonardo Marin+10.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0% | Possession | 37.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 187 | Carries | 98 |
| 618m | Carry metres | 332m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 37 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 12 | Offloads | 6 |
| 313 | Passes | 129 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Tackles made | 243 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 37 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 86.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 146 | Rucks won | 74 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kicks from hand | 19 |
| 465m | Kick metres | 433m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 2 |
| 6 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.