Australia v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
57 – 10
18 July 2026HBF Park, Perth
What the model says about Australia v Italy
- Kick-off
- 10:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 18 m
- Temperature
- 13.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.3 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Josh Canham
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Ryan Lonergan
- 10Declan Meredith
- 11Harry Potter-1.0
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Max Jorgensen
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Miles Amatosero
- 20Fraser McReight+12.2
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
Italy
- 1Muhamed Hasa
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Giulio Marini
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 7Michele Lamaro
- 8Ross Vintcent
- 9Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Paolo Odogwu
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Lorenzo Pani
Replacements
- 16Pablo Dimcheff
- 17Danilo Fischetti
- 18Ion Neculai
- 19Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 20Alessandro Ortombina
- 21Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 22Giacomo Da Re
- 23Leonardo Marin+10.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 163 | Carries | 84 |
| 558m | Carry metres | 249m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 43 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 9 | Offloads | 3 |
| 207 | Passes | 117 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Tackles made | 215 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 43 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 13 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Lineout success | 82.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 88.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 91.0% |
| 121 | Rucks won | 64 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 415m | Kick metres | 319m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Tries | 2 |
| 6 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.