New Zealand v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
40 – 21
18 July 2026Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 07:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 13.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Josh Lord-2.2
- 5Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 6Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 7Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Ruben Love
- 11Josh Moorby
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17Xavier Numia
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Anton Segner
- 20Peter Lakai+5.9
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Caleb Clarke+9.0
Ireland
- 1Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Sam Prendergast
- 11Jimmy O'Brien
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Robert Baloucoune
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Jeremy Loughman
- 18Thomas Clarkson
- 19Nick Timoney
- 20Sean Jansen
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Ciarán Frawley
- 23Bundee Aki-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 55.0% | Territory | 45.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 200 | Carries | 126 |
| 558m | Carry metres | 414m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 12 | Offloads | 7 |
| 255 | Passes | 216 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 170 | Tackles made | 240 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 18 | Dominant tackles | 13 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 86.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 142 | Rucks won | 103 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 14 |
| 632m | Kick metres | 378m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 5 | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.