New Zealand v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 9
3 October 1999Ashton Gate, Bristol · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 10.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 8 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Robin Brooke
- 6Reuben Thorne+4.5
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Taine Randell(c)
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Jonah Lomu
- 12Alama Ieremia
- 13Christian Cullen
- 14Tana Umaga-18.3
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Daryl Gibson
- 17Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 18Royce Willis
- 19Craig Dowd
- 20Andrew Blowers
- 21Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 22Mark Hammett
Tonga
- 1Ta'u Fainga'anuku
- 2Fe'ao Vunipola
- 3Tevita Taumoepeau
- 4Isi Fatani
- 5Benhur Kivalu
- 6Hese Fakatou
- 7Jonathan Koloi
- 8Va'a Toloke
- 9Sililo Martens
- 10Elisi Vunipola
- 11Tauna'holo Taufahema
- 12Semi Taupeaafe
- 13Dave Tiueti
- 14Fepikou Tatafu
- 15Josh Taumalolo
Replacements
- 16Sione Tuipulotu
- 17Isi Tapueluelu
- 18Falamani Mafi
- 19David Edwards
- 20Matt Te Pou
- 21Ngalu Taufo'ou
- 22Latiume Maka
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.