Australia v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
55 – 19
14 October 1999Thomond Park, Limerick · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v USA
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 18 m
- Temperature
- 9.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 5 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Dan Crowley
- 2Michael Foley
- 3Rod Moore
- 4Mark Connors
- 5Tom Bowman
- 6Owen Finegan
- 7Tiaan Strauss
- 8Jim Williams
- 9Chris Whitaker
- 10Stephen Larkham
- 11Matt Burke
- 12Nathan Grey+10.3
- 13Jason Little(c)
- 14Scott Staniforth
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Joe Roff-6.5
- 17Rod Kafer
- 18Matt Cockbain
- 19David Giffin+0.8
- 20George Gregan
- 21Richard Harry
- 22Jeremy Paul+10.0
USA
- 1Joe Clayton
- 2Tom Billups
- 3George Sucher
- 4Luke Gross
- 5Alec Parker
- 6Dave Hodges
- 7Tasi Mo'unga
- 8Rob Lumkong
- 9Kevin Dalzell(c)
- 10David Niumataiwalu
- 11Brian Hightower
- 12Mark Scharrenberg
- 13Juan Grobler
- 14Vaea Anitoni
- 15Kurt Shuman
Replacements
- 16Tomasi Takau
- 17Alatini Saulala
- 18Jesse Coulson
- 19Shaun Paga
- 20Marc l'Huillier
- 21Kirk Khasigian
- 22Eric Reed
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.