England v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
101 – 10
15 October 1999Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 11:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 2Phil Greening
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Garath Archer
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Richard Hill
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Paul Grayson+7.3
- 11Dan Luger-5.9
- 12Jerry Guscott
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Austin Healey
- 15Matt Perry
Replacements
- 16Nick Beal
- 17Mike Catt+2.3
- 18Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 19Richard Cockerill
- 20Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 21Neil Back
- 22Jason Leonard
Tonga
- 1Ngalu Taufo'ou
- 2Fe'ao Vunipola
- 3Tevita Taumoepeau
- 4Isi Fatani
- 5Benhur Kivalu
- 6David Edwards
- 7Jonathan Koloi
- 8Kati Tu'ipulotu
- 9Sililo Martens
- 10Elisi Vunipola(c)
- 11Semi Taupeaafe
- 12Salesi Finau
- 13Fepikou Tatafu
- 14Dave Tiueti
- 15Sateki Tuipulotu
Replacements
- 16Isi Tapueluelu
- 17Falamani Mafi
- 18Epi Taione
- 19Va'a Toloke
- 20Ta'u Fainga'anuku
- 21Latiume Maka
- 22Sione Tuipulotu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.