Ireland v Romania
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 17
11 October 2003Central Coast Stadium, Gosford · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Romania
- Kick-off
- 07:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 6 m
- Temperature
- 12.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.8 mm
- Wind
- 32 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Marcus Horan
- 2Keith Wood(c)+3.6
- 3Reggie Corrigan-1.6
- 4Malcolm O'Kelly-2.5
- 5Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 6Victor Costello-4.5
- 7Keith Gleeson
- 8Anthony Foley
- 9Peter Stringer+11.4
- 10David Humphreys
- 11Denis Hickie+3.0
- 12Kevin Maggs
- 13Brian O'Driscoll-0.9
- 14Shane Horgan+5.3
- 15Girvan Dempsey+0.1
Replacements
Romania
- 1Petru Balan
- 2Razvan Mavrodin
- 3Marcel Socaciu
- 4Sorin Socol
- 5Augustin Petrechei
- 6George Chiriac
- 7Ovidiu Tonita
- 8Cristian Petre
- 9Lucian Sirbu
- 10Ionut Tofan
- 11Gabriel Brezoianu
- 12Romeo Gontineac(c)
- 13Valentin Maftei
- 14Cristian Sauan
- 15Dan Dumbrava
Replacements
- 16Petrisor Toderasc
- 17Cezar Popescu
- 18Alex Tudori
- 19Marius Nicolae
- 20Iulian Andrei
- 21Mihai Vioreanu
- 22Ion Teodorescu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 71.0% | Possession | 29.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 491m | Carry metres | 354m |
| 14 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 19 |
| 10 | Offloads | 22 |
| 112 | Passes | 153 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Tackles made | 115 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 79.0% |
| 19 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 91.7% | Lineout success | 90.5% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 19 |
| 11 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 65 | Rucks won | 74 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 10 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Kicks from hand | 30 |
| 1083m | Kick metres | 710m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 14 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.