New Zealand v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
68 – 6
17 October 2003Marvel Stadium, Melbourne · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Canada
- Kick-off
- 09:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 21 m
- Temperature
- 14.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Mark Hammett
- 3Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Chris Jack
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Marty Holah-0.8
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Steve Devine
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Caleb Ralph
- 12Dan Carter+1.9
- 13Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 14Mils Muliaina
- 15Leon MacDonald+1.6
Replacements
- 16Corey Flynn
- 17Dave Hewett
- 18Richie McCaw+1.0
- 19Dan Braid
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Doug Howlett-3.2
- 22Greg Somerville+6.5
Canada
- 1Kevin Tkachuk
- 2Aaron Abrams
- 3Garth Cooke
- 4Jamie Cudmore
- 5Ed Knaggs
- 6Ryan Banks(c)
- 7Jim Douglas
- 8Jeff Reid
- 9Ed Fairhurst
- 10Jared Barker
- 11Sean Fauth
- 12Marco di Girolomo
- 13John Cannon
- 14Matt King
- 15Quentin Fyffe
Replacements
- 16Mark Lawson
- 17Rod Snow
- 18Colin Yukes
- 19Adam van Staveren
- 20Morgan Williams
- 21Ryan Smith
- 22Nik Witkowski
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Possession | — |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 959m | Carry metres | 200m |
| 25 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 40 | Defenders beaten | 7 |
| 21 | Offloads | 3 |
| 215 | Passes | 115 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 101 | Tackles made | 136 |
| 94.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 40 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 81.3% | Lineout success | 58.3% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 10 | Scrums won | 11 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Rucks won | 71 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kicks from hand | 16 |
| 520m | Kick metres | 391m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 19 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 14 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tries | — |
| 9 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.