Scotland v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
39 – 15
20 October 2003Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · neutral venue
What the model says about Scotland v USA
- Kick-off
- 09:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 17.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.3 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 7 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Tom Smith
- 2Gordon Bulloch(c)
- 3Gavin Kerr
- 4Nathan Hines-2.0
- 5Stuart Grimes
- 6Ross Beattie
- 7Jon Petrie
- 8Simon Taylor
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Gregor Townsend
- 11Chris Paterson+1.8
- 12Andrew Henderson-4.3
- 13Andy Craig
- 14Simon Danielli+0.1
- 15Glenn Metcalfe
Replacements
- 16Robbie Russell+3.0
- 17Bruce Douglas
- 18Jason White+12.3
- 19Martin Leslie
- 20Bryan Redpath
- 21Ben Hinshelwood
- 22Kenny Logan
USA
- 1Mike MacDonald
- 2Kirk Khasigian
- 3Dan Dorsey
- 4Alec Parker
- 5Luke Gross
- 6Kort Schubert
- 7Dave Hodges(c)
- 8Dan Lyle
- 9Kevin Dalzell
- 10Mike Hercus
- 11Riaan van Zyl
- 12Kain Cross
- 13Phillip Eloff
- 14David Fee
- 15Paul Emerick
Replacements
- 16Matt Wyatt
- 17Richard Liddington
- 18Jurie Gouws
- 19Olo Fifita
- 20Kimball Kjar
- 21Jason Keyter
- 22Link Wilfley
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Possession | — |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 625m | Carry metres | 195m |
| 22 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 39 | Defenders beaten | 8 |
| 15 | Offloads | 9 |
| 165 | Passes | 93 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 62 | Tackles made | 81 |
| 89.0% | Tackle success | 68.0% |
| 8 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 39 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 89.5% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 12 | Scrums won | 12 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 64 | Rucks won | 55 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 8 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 599m | Kick metres | 693m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 21 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 18 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.