New Zealand v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
91 – 7
24 October 2003Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · neutral venue
What the model says about New Zealand v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 07:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 22.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.8 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 2Corey Flynn
- 3Greg Somerville+6.5
- 4Brad Thorn+3.6
- 5Ali Williams+2.0
- 6Reuben Thorne(c)+4.5
- 7Dan Braid
- 8Rodney So'oialo+1.2
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Carlos Spencer+6.5
- 11Caleb Ralph
- 12Dan Carter+1.9
- 13Leon MacDonald+1.6
- 14Doug Howlett-3.2
- 15Mils Muliaina
Replacements
- 16Keven Mealamu+2.6
- 17Dave Hewett
- 18Jerry Collins
- 19Marty Holah-0.8
- 20Richie McCaw+1.0
- 21Ma'a Nonu+0.9
- 22Ben Atiga
Tonga
- 1Kisi Pulu
- 2Vili Ma'asi
- 3Hemani Lavaka
- 4Saia Latu
- 5Viliami Vaki
- 6Ipolito Fenukitau
- 7Stanley Afeaki
- 8Benhur Kivalu(c)
- 9Sililo Martens
- 10Pierre Hola
- 11Tevita Tu'ifua
- 12John Payne
- 13Suka Hufanga
- 14Sione Fonua
- 15Sila Va'enuku
Replacements
- 16Ephraim Taukafa
- 17Tonga Lea'aetoa
- 18Milton Ngauamo
- 19Edward Langi
- 20David Palu
- 21Sateki Tuipulotu
- 22Gus Leger
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Possession | 7.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 665m | Carry metres | 272m |
| 17 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 37 | Defenders beaten | 6 |
| 19 | Offloads | 4 |
| 162 | Passes | 62 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 89 | Tackles made | 88 |
| 94.0% | Tackle success | 70.0% |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 37 |
| 12 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 94.4% | Lineout success | 33.3% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 2 |
| 10 | Scrums won | 14 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | Rucks won | 48 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 15 |
| 813m | Kick metres | 398m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 17 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tries | 1 |
| 13 | Conversions | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.