England v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
111 – 13
2 November 2003Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 07:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 19 m
- Temperature
- 21.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 24 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Dorian West
- 3Phil Vickery(c)+2.7
- 4Martin Corry-6.2
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Joe Worsley+4.0
- 7Lewis Moody+1.4
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Andy Gomarsall+2.7
- 10Paul Grayson+7.3
- 11Dan Luger-5.9
- 12Mike Catt+2.3
- 13Stuart Abbott
- 14Iain Balshaw+8.5
- 15Josh Lewsey
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17Julian White-1.4
- 18Martin Johnson+2.1
- 19Ben Kay+9.1
- 20Kyran Bracken-1.7
- 21Will Greenwood
- 22Jason Robinson+5.5
Uruguay
- 1Eduardo Berruti
- 2Diego Lamelas
- 3Pablo Lemoine
- 4Juan Carlos Bado
- 5Juan Alvarez Zerbino
- 6Nicolas Brignoni
- 7Nicolas Grille
- 8Rodrigo Capo Ortega
- 9Juan Campomar
- 10Sebastian Aguirre
- 11Jose Viana
- 12Joaquin de Freitas
- 13Diego Aguirre(c)
- 14Joaquin Pastore
- 15Juan Menchaca
Replacements
- 16Juan Andres Perez
- 17Rodrigo Sanchez
- 18Guillermo Storace
- 19Juan Alzueta
- 20Marcelo Gutierrez
- 21Emiliano Caffera
- 22Diego Reyes
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Possession | 6.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 1255m | Carry metres | 169m |
| 33 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 60 | Defenders beaten | 4 |
| 20 | Offloads | 3 |
| 210 | Passes | 47 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 83 | Tackles made | 100 |
| 95.0% | Tackle success | 62.0% |
| 4 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 60 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 7 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 62 | Rucks won | 49 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 10 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Kicks from hand | 10 |
| 326m | Kick metres | 267m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 16 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Tries | 1 |
| 13 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.