Australia v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
37 – 6
29 September 2007Stade Chaban-Delmas, Bordeaux · neutral venue
What the model says about Australia v Canada
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 13 m
- Temperature
- 14.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.2 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 9 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1Greg Holmes+9.7
- 2Adam Freier
- 3Al Baxter
- 4Nathan Sharpe+6.6
- 5Mark Chisholm+2.7
- 6Hugh McMeniman
- 7George Smith(c)
- 8David Lyons-0.2
- 9Sam Cordingley-3.1
- 10Julian Huxley
- 11Drew Mitchell+1.7
- 12Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
- 13Lote Tuqiri
- 14Cameron Shepherd
- 15Chris Latham+0.2
Replacements
- 16Sean Hardman
- 17Guy Shepherdson
- 18Rocky Elsom
- 19Phil Waugh
- 20Stephen Hoiles
- 21George Gregan
- 22Matt Giteau+3.8
Canada
- 1Rod Snow
- 2Pat Riordan
- 3Jon Thiel
- 4Luke Tait
- 5Mike James
- 6Colin Yukes
- 7Dave Biddle
- 8Sean-Michael Stephen
- 9Morgan Williams(c)
- 10Ander Monro
- 11James Pritchard
- 12Derek Daypuck
- 13Mike Pyke
- 14Justin Mensah-Coker
- 15DTH Van Der Merwe
Replacements
- 16Aaron Carpenter
- 17Dan Pletch
- 18Mike Pletch
- 19Mike Burak
- 20Mike Webb
- 21Ed Fairhurst
- 22Nick Trenkel
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 70.0% | Possession | 30.0% |
| 80.0% | Territory | 20.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 467m | Carry metres | 136m |
| 24 | Defenders beaten | — |
| 10 | Offloads | 1 |
| 143 | Passes | 44 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 42 | Tackles made | 103 |
| — | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 24 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 81.3% | Lineout success | 40.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 13 | Scrums won | 14 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 82 | Rucks won | 37 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 1 |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.