Scotland v Romania
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 24
10 September 2011Invercargill Rugby Park, Invercargill · neutral venue
What the model says about Scotland v Romania
- Kick-off
- 01:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 6 m
- Temperature
- 10.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.4 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 17 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Allan Jacobsen-3.1
- 2Ross Ford
- 3Geoff Cross-3.7
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Alastair Kellock(c)+2.2
- 6Kelly Brown+3.1
- 7John Barclay-0.6
- 8Richie Vernon
- 9Mike Blair+4.5
- 10Ruaridh Jackson+1.8
- 11Simon Danielli+0.1
- 12Sean Lamont+5.6
- 13Joe Ansbro
- 14Max Evans
- 15Chris Paterson+1.8
Replacements
- 16Scott Lawson-0.4
- 17Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 18Nathan Hines-2.0
- 19Ross Rennie
- 20Chris Cusiter-5.1
- 21Dan Parks+4.1
- 22Rory Lamont+0.8
Romania
- 1Mihaita Lazar
- 2Marius Tincu(c)
- 3Paulica Ion
- 4Valentin Ursache
- 5Cristian Petre
- 6Mihai Macovei
- 7Ovidiu Tonita
- 8Daniel Carpo
- 9Lucian Sirbu
- 10Dan Dumbrava
- 11Madalin Lemnaru
- 12Ionut Dimofte
- 13Csaba Gal
- 14Stefan Ciuntu
- 15Iulian Dumitras
Replacements
- 16Bogdan Zebega Suman
- 17Silviu Florea
- 18Valentin Poparlan
- 19Stelian Burcea
- 20Florin Surugiu
- 21Ionel Cazan
- 22Florin Vlaicu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 56.0% | Possession | 44.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 538m | Carry metres | 187m |
| 21 | Defenders beaten | 5 |
| 146 | Passes | 67 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Tackles made | 99 |
| 5 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 21 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 91.7% | Lineout success | 87.5% |
| 11 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 32 | Scrums won | 33 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 73 | Rucks won | 54 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 4 |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.