England v Georgia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
41 – 10
18 September 2011Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin · neutral venue
What the model says about England v Georgia
- Kick-off
- 06:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 32 m
- Temperature
- 7.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.9 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Matt Stevens-0.0
- 2Dylan Hartley
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Simon Shaw-2.6
- 5Tom Palmer+2.1
- 6Tom Wood+0.3
- 7Lewis Moody(c)+1.4
- 8James Haskell+0.9
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10Toby Flood-1.2
- 11Delon Armitage
- 12Shontayne Hape
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Chris Ashton+3.4
- 15Ben Foden
Replacements
- 16Steve Thompson+3.2
- 17Alex Corbisiero
- 18Tom Croft-2.9
- 19Louis Deacon-1.1
- 20Joe Simpson
- 21Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 22Matt Banahan
Georgia
- 1Davit Khinchagashvili
- 2Jaba Bregvadze
- 3Davit Kubriashvili
- 4Ilia Zedginidze
- 5Vakhtang Maisuradze
- 6Shalva Sutiashvili
- 7Mamuka Gorgodze
- 8Dimitri Basilaia
- 9Irakli Abuseridze(c)
- 10Merab Kvirikashvili
- 11Sandro Todua
- 12Tedo Zibzibadze
- 13Davit Kacharava
- 14Irakli Machkhaneli
- 15Revaz Gigauri
Replacements
- 16Goderdzi Shvelidze
- 17Davit Zirakashvili
- 18Levan Datunashvili
- 19Giorgi Chkhaidze
- 20Bidzina Samkharadze
- 21Givi Berishvili
- 22Lasha Khmaladze
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | Possession | 52.0% |
| 45.0% | Territory | 55.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 713m | Carry metres | 340m |
| 24 | Defenders beaten | 9 |
| 145 | Passes | 116 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 128 | Tackles made | 84 |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 90.9% | Lineout success | 77.8% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 43 | Scrums won | 47 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 59 | Rucks won | 79 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 3 |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.