France v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
46 – 19
18 September 2011McLean Park, Napier · neutral venue
What the model says about France v Canada
- Kick-off
- 08:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 6 m
- Temperature
- 9.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Poux-4.2
- 2William Servat+1.4
- 3Luc Ducalcon
- 4Pascal Pape+1.7
- 5Romain Millo-Chluski
- 6Fulgence Ouedraogo-0.3
- 7Julien Bonnaire
- 8Louis Picamoles-2.7
- 9Morgan Parra-0.8
- 10Francois Trinh-Duc+2.0
- 11Aurelien Rougerie(c)-0.2
- 12Maxime Mermoz-3.2
- 13David Marty+6.7
- 14Vincent Clerc+1.5
- 15Damien Traille+3.1
Replacements
- 16Guilhem Guirado+0.6
- 17Fabien Barcella
- 18Julien Pierre
- 19Imanol Harinordoquy+0.6
- 20Dimitri Yachvili-2.5
- 21Fabrice Estebanez
- 22Maxime Médard+1.5
Canada
- 1Hubert Buydens
- 2Pat Riordan(c)
- 3Jason Marshall
- 4Jebb Sinclair
- 5Jamie Cudmore
- 6Adam Kleeberger
- 7Chauncey O'Toole
- 8Aaron Carpenter
- 9Ed Fairhurst
- 10Ander Monro
- 11Phil MacKenzie
- 12Ryan Smith
- 13DTH Van Der Merwe
- 14Ciaran Hearn
- 15James Pritchard
Replacements
- 16Ryan Hamilton
- 17Scott Franklin
- 18Tyler Hotson
- 19Nanyak Dala
- 20Sean White
- 21Nathan Hirayama
- 22Conor Trainor
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 58.0% | Territory | 42.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 392m | Carry metres | 268m |
| 21 | Defenders beaten | 7 |
| 154 | Passes | 87 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 79 | Tackles made | 109 |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 21 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 36 | Scrums won | 34 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 81 | Rucks won | 68 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.