Italy v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 18
26 September 2015Elland Road, Leeds · neutral venue
What the model says about Italy v Canada
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 11.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Michele Rizzo
- 2Leonardo Ghiraldini(c)-0.2
- 3Lorenzo Cittadini+5.6
- 4Quintin Geldenhuys
- 5Joshua Furno
- 6Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 7Francesco Minto
- 8Samu Vunisa
- 9Edoardo Gori+0.9
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Giovanbattista Venditti+5.5
- 12Gonzalo Garcia-3.5
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Leonardo Sarto-7.6
- 15Luke McLean
Replacements
- 16Davide Giazzon
- 17Matias Aguero+1.9
- 18Martin Castrogiovanni+1.4
- 19Marco Fuser
- 20Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Michele Campagnaro+0.8
Canada
- 1Hubert Buydens
- 2Ray Barkwill
- 3Doug Wooldridge
- 4Jebb Sinclair
- 5Jamie Cudmore
- 6Nanyak Dala
- 7John Moonlight
- 8Tyler Ardron(c)
- 9Jamie Mackenzie
- 10Nathan Hirayama
- 11DTH Van Der Merwe
- 12Connor Braid
- 13Ciaran Hearn
- 14Phil MacKenzie
- 15Matt Evans
Replacements
- 16Aaron Carpenter
- 17Djustice Sears-Duru
- 18Andrew Tiedemann
- 19Evan Olmstead
- 20Kyle Gilmour
- 21Phil Mack
- 22Conor Trainor
- 23Harry Jones
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 41.0% | Possession | 59.0% |
| 42.0% | Territory | 58.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 369m | Carry metres | 497m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 12 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 31 |
| 8 | Offloads | 4 |
| 127 | Passes | 178 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 151 | Tackles made | 90 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 31 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 56 | Rucks won | 99 |
| 4 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 572m | Kick metres | 440m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.