South Africa v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
46 – 6
26 September 2015Villa Park, Birmingham · neutral venue
What the model says about South Africa v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 106 m
- Temperature
- 10.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Tendai Mtawarira+6.9
- 2Adriaan Strauss-3.8
- 3Jannie du Plessis-1.2
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Victor Matfield-1.4
- 6Francois Louw+9.7
- 7Schalk Burger+6.0
- 8Duane Vermeulen+6.9
- 9Fourie du Preez+10.4
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Bryan Habana+1.1
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jean de Villiers(c)+0.5
- 14JP Pietersen+0.8
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Schalk Brits
- 17Trevor Nyakane+2.4
- 18Frans Malherbe+7.2
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 21Ruan Pienaar+0.0
- 22Patrick Lambie+6.5
- 23Jesse Kriel-6.1
Samoa
- 1Sakaria Taulafo
- 2Motu Matu'u
- 3Census Johnston
- 4Filo Paulo
- 5Joe Tekori
- 6TJ Ioane
- 7Jack Lam
- 8Ofisa Treviranus(c)
- 9Kahn Fotuali'i
- 10Michael Stanley
- 11Alesana Tuilagi
- 12Rey Lee-Lo
- 13Paul Perez
- 14Ken Pisi
- 15Tim Nanai-Williams
Replacements
- 16Ole Avei
- 17Viliamu Afatia
- 18Anthony Perenise
- 19Faifili Levave
- 20Vavae Tuilagi
- 21Vavao Afemai
- 22Tusi Pisi
- 23George Pisi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 72.0% | Territory | 28.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 668m | Carry metres | 233m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 41 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 10 | Offloads | 13 |
| 194 | Passes | 108 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Tackles made | 169 |
| 91.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 41 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 11 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 62.5% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 2 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 104 | Rucks won | 62 |
| 13 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 403m | Kick metres | 385m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | — |
| 2 | Conversions | — |
| 4 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.