Ireland v Romania
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
44 – 10
27 September 2015Wembley Stadium, London · neutral venue
What the model says about Ireland v Romania
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 12.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Cian Healy-4.9
- 2Richardt Strauss
- 3Nathan White
- 4Donnacha Ryan-1.5
- 5Devin Toner+4.4
- 6Jordi Murphy
- 7Chris Henry
- 8Jamie Heaslip(c)
- 9Eoin Reddan-4.6
- 10Ian Madigan
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Darren Cave
- 13Jared Payne
- 14Tommy Bowe-3.8
- 15Simon Zebo-1.2
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Jack McGrath
- 18Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 19Paul O'Connell-2.4
- 20Sean O'Brien-2.1
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Paddy Jackson
- 23Rob Kearney+2.0
Romania
- 1Andrei Ursache
- 2Andrei Radoi
- 3Paulica Ion
- 4Valentin Poparlan
- 5Ovidiu Tonita
- 6Viorel Lucaci
- 7Mihai Macovei(c)
- 8Daniel Carpo
- 9Valentin Calafeteanu
- 10Mike Wiringi
- 11Ionut Botezatu
- 12Csaba Gal
- 13Paula Kinikinilau
- 14Adrian Apostol
- 15Catalin Fercu
Replacements
- 16Otar Turashvili
- 17Mihaita Lazar
- 18Alexandru Tarus
- 19Johan van Heerden
- 20Stelian Burcea
- 21Florin Surugiu
- 22Florin Ionita
- 23Florin Vlaicu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 66.0% | Territory | 34.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 573m | Carry metres | 278m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 7 |
| 7 | Offloads | 4 |
| 225 | Passes | 98 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Tackles made | 163 |
| 93.0% | Tackle success | 86.0% |
| 7 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 83.3% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 5 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 99 | Rucks won | 73 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Kicks from hand | 32 |
| 393m | Kick metres | 337m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 4 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Romania |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.