England v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
60 – 3
10 October 2015City of Manchester Stadium, Manchester
What the model says about England v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 19:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 57 m
- Temperature
- 10.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 20 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 2Tom Youngs
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Joe Launchbury-0.3
- 5Geoff Parling-5.6
- 6James Haskell+0.9
- 7Chris Robshaw(c)
- 8Nick Easter+2.6
- 9Danny Care+3.0
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jack Nowell+4.7
- 12Owen Farrell+1.1
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Alex Goode-2.4
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18David Wilson+7.0
- 19George Kruis+4.6
- 20Tom Wood+0.3
- 21Richard Wigglesworth-3.5
- 22Jonathan Joseph-0.5
- 23Mike Brown
Uruguay
- 1Mateo Sanguinetti
- 2Carlos Arboleya Sarazola
- 3Mario Sagario
- 4Santiago Vilaseca Hontou(c)
- 5Jorge Zerbino Stajano
- 6Juan Gaminara
- 7Matias Beer
- 8Alejandro Nieto
- 9Agustin Ormaechea
- 10Felipe Berchesi
- 11Rodrigo Silva
- 12Andrés Vilaseca
- 13Joaquin Prada
- 14Santiago Gibernau Arredondo
- 15Gaston Mieres
Replacements
- 16Nicolas Klappenbach Zucchi
- 17Oscar Duran de Bertolaza
- 18Alejo Corral
- 19Diego Magno
- 20Mathias Palomeque Castro
- 21Agustin Alonso Dieguez
- 22Alejo Duran Parletti
- 23Manuel Blengio
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 70.0% | Possession | 30.0% |
| 74.0% | Territory | 26.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 689m | Carry metres | 232m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 36 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 13 | Offloads | 4 |
| 242 | Passes | 70 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 72 | Tackles made | 163 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 36 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 68.8% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 11 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Rucks won | 57 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Kicks from hand | 34 |
| 777m | Kick metres | 401m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 17 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Tries | — |
| 5 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.