Scotland v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 33
10 October 2015St James' Park, Newcastle · neutral venue
What the model says about Scotland v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 13:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 71 m
- Temperature
- 9.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Alasdair Dickinson+2.6
- 2Ross Ford
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Jonny Gray-7.0
- 6Ryan Wilson-1.7
- 7John Hardie
- 8David Denton-0.1
- 9Greig Laidlaw(c)
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Tommy Seymour
- 12Matt Scott-5.4
- 13Mark Bennett-0.3
- 14Sean Maitland+4.2
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Gordon Reid+0.3
- 18Jon Welsh
- 19Tim Swinson
- 20Josh Strauss+6.2
- 21Henry Pyrgos
- 22Peter Horne+2.1
- 23Sean Lamont+5.6
Samoa
- 1Sakaria Taulafo
- 2Manu Leiataua
- 3Census Johnston
- 4Filo Paulo
- 5Kane Thompson
- 6Maurie Fa'asavalu
- 7Jack Lam
- 8Alafoti Fa'osiliva
- 9Kahn Fotuali'i(c)
- 10Tusi Pisi
- 11Fa'atoina Autagavaia
- 12Rey Lee-Lo
- 13George Pisi
- 14Paul Perez
- 15Tim Nanai-Williams
Replacements
- 16Motu Matu'u
- 17Viliamu Afatia
- 18Anthony Perenise
- 19Faifili Levave
- 20Vavae Tuilagi
- 21Vavao Afemai
- 22Patrick Fa'apale
- 23Ken Pisi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 257m | Carry metres | 462m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 28 |
| 7 | Offloads | 11 |
| 92 | Passes | 141 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 98 | Tackles made | 83 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 28 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 93.3% | Lineout success | — |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 3 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 61 | Rucks won | 67 |
| 11 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 20 |
| 420m | Kick metres | 372m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 2 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.