England v Tonga
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 3
22 September 2019Daiwa House Premist Dome, Sapporo
What the model says about England v Tonga
- Kick-off
- 10:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 84 m
- Temperature
- 14.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.4 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Joe Marler+2.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 5Maro Itoje-12.4
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 9Ben Youngs+2.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Anthony Watson-0.9
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Ellis Genge-12.8
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19George Kruis+4.6
- 20Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 21Willi Heinz
- 22Henry Slade0.0
- 23Jonathan Joseph-0.5
Tonga
- 1Siegfried Fisiʻihoi
- 2Sosefo Sakalia
- 3Ben Tameifuna
- 4Sam Lousi
- 5Leva Fifita
- 6Sione Kalamafoni
- 7Zane Kapeli
- 8Maama Vaipulu
- 9Sonatane Takulua
- 10Kurt Morath
- 11Viliami Lolohea
- 12Cooper Vuna
- 13Siale Piutau(c)
- 14Atieli Pakalani
- 15David Halaifonua
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 654m | Carry metres | 199m |
| 16 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 28 | Defenders beaten | 19 |
| 8 | Offloads | 6 |
| 147 | Passes | 106 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 128 | Tackles made | 121 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 19 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 28 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 93.3% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Rucks won | 78 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 31 |
| 929m | Kick metres | 1010m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 13 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Tonga |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | — |
| 3 | Conversions | — |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.