Italy v Namibia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 22
22 September 2019Hanazono Rugby Stadium, Osaka
What the model says about Italy v Namibia
- Kick-off
- 05:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 26.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.2 mm
- Wind
- 35 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 15 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Nicola Quaglio
- 2Luca Bigi
- 3Tiziano Pasquali+8.2
- 4Alessandro Zanni+3.9
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Braam Steyn+4.4
- 7Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 8Sergio Parisse(c)-0.9
- 9Tito Tebaldi
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Mattia Bellini+1.7
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 14Edoardo Padovani+0.5
- 15Jayden Hayward
Replacements
- 16Oliviero Fabiani
- 17Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 18Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 19Dean Budd
- 20Jake Polledri
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Matteo Minozzi
Namibia
- 1Andre Rademeyer
- 2Torsten van Jaarsveld
- 3Aranos Coetzee
- 4PJ van Lill
- 5Tjiuee Uanivi(c)
- 6Rohan Kitshoff
- 7Wian Conradie
- 8Janco Venter
- 9Damian Stevens
- 10Cliven Loubser
- 11JC Greyling
- 12Darryl De La Harpe
- 13Justin Newman
- 14Chad Plato
- 15Johan Tromp
Replacements
- 16Louis van der Westhuizen
- 17AJ de Klerk
- 18Nelius Theron
- 19Johan Retief
- 20Max Katjijeko
- 21PJ Walters
- 22Eugene Jantjies
- 23Helarius Kisting
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | Possession | 43.0% |
| 63.0% | Territory | 37.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 537m | Carry metres | 317m |
| 22 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 11 | Offloads | 6 |
| 141 | Passes | 91 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Tackles made | 127 |
| 90.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 82.3% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 9 | Scrums won | 11 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Rucks won | 56 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 694m | Kick metres | 759m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.