Italy v Canada
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
48 – 7
26 September 2019Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka
What the model says about Italy v Canada
- Kick-off
- 07:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 29 m
- Temperature
- 22.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.1 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Andrea Lovotti
- 2Luca Bigi
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4David Sisi+1.5
- 5Dean Budd(c)
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Jake Polledri
- 8Braam Steyn+4.4
- 9Callum Braley
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Giulio Bisegni
- 12Jayden Hayward
- 13Michele Campagnaro+0.8
- 14Tommaso Benvenuti+9.9
- 15Matteo Minozzi
Replacements
- 16Federico Zani
- 17Nicola Quaglio
- 18Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Maxime Mbanda-4.9
- 21Guglielmo Palazzani+7.1
- 22Carlo Canna+1.5
- 23Mattia Bellini+1.7
Canada
- 1Hubert Buydens
- 2Eric Howard
- 3Matt Tierney
- 4Conor Keys
- 5Josh Larsen
- 6Mike Sheppard
- 7Lucas Rumball
- 8Tyler Ardron
- 9Gordon McRorie
- 10Peter Nelson
- 11DTH Van Der Merwe
- 12Nick Blevins
- 13Ben LeSage
- 14Jeff Hassler
- 15Pat Parfrey
Replacements
- 16Benoit Piffero
- 17Djustice Sears-Duru
- 18Cole Keith
- 19Luke Campbell
- 20Matt Heaton
- 21Jamie Mackenzie
- 22Ciaran Hearn
- 23Andrew Coe
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 667m | Carry metres | 428m |
| 17 | Clean breaks | 15 |
| 43 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 14 | Offloads | 8 |
| 129 | Passes | 123 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 114 | Tackles made | 113 |
| 89.0% | Tackle success | 72.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 43 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| — | Lineout success | 71.4% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 13 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 70 | Rucks won | 73 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 780m | Kick metres | 557m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 17 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Canada |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.