Ireland v Russia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 0
3 October 2019Kobe Misaki Stadium, Kobe
What the model says about Ireland v Russia
- Kick-off
- 10:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 24.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 20.1 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Dave Kilcoyne-4.2
- 2Niall Scannell
- 3John Ryan
- 4Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 5Jean Kleyn
- 6Rhys Ruddock
- 7Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 8Jordi Murphy
- 9Luke McGrath
- 10Johnny Sexton(c)+5.2
- 11Keith Earls-4.9
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Andrew Conway
- 15Rob Kearney+2.0
Replacements
- 16Sean Cronin+4.2
- 17Andrew Porter
- 18Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20CJ Stander
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Jack Carty
- 23Jordan Larmour-6.3
Russia
- 1Andrei Polivalov
- 2Evgeny Matveev
- 3Kirill Gotovtsev
- 4Andrey Garbuzov
- 5Bogdan Fedotko
- 6Anton Sychev
- 7Tagir Gadzhiev
- 8Victor Gresev
- 9Dmitry Perov
- 10Ramil Gaisin
- 11Denis Simplikevich
- 12Kirill Golosnitskiy
- 13Igor Galinovskiy
- 14German Davydov
- 15Vasily Artemyev(c)
Replacements
- 16Stanislav Selskii
- 17Valery Morozov
- 18Vladimir Podrezov
- 19Andrei Ostrikov
- 20Evgeny Elgin
- 21Sergey Ianiushkin
- 22Roman Khodin
- 23Vladimir Ostroushko
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 63.0% | Possession | 37.0% |
| 68.0% | Territory | 32.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 589m | Carry metres | 150m |
| 16 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 13 | Offloads | 1 |
| 181 | Passes | 101 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Tackles made | 188 |
| 90.0% | Tackle success | 89.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 93.3% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 4 | Scrums won | 13 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 107 | Rucks won | 53 |
| 6 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 598m | Kick metres | 780m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 15 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | — |
| 5 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.