Australia v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
45 – 10
5 October 2019Showa Denko Dome Oita, Oita
What the model says about Australia v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 05:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 146 m
- Temperature
- 22.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Folau Fainga'a
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Rob Simmons-1.5
- 5Adam Coleman
- 6Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 7Michael Hooper(c)+1.0
- 8Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Christian Leali'ifano
- 11Jordan Petaia
- 12Matt To'omua-5.6
- 13Tevita Kuridrani+5.8
- 14Dane Haylett-Petty-9.9
- 15Kurtley Beale+3.5
Replacements
- 16Jordan Uelese
- 17Sekope Kepu+3.0
- 18Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 19Rory Arnold-6.0
- 20David Pocock+0.9
- 21Will Genia+2.0
- 22Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 23Adam Ashley-Cooper-2.1
Uruguay
- 1Juan Echeverria
- 2Germán Kessler
- 3Diego Arbelo
- 4Franco Lamanna
- 5Manuel Leindekar
- 6Manuel Ardao
- 7Juan Diego Ormaechea
- 8Manuel Diana
- 9Agustin Ormaechea
- 10Felipe Berchesi
- 11Nicolas Freitas
- 12Andrés Vilaseca(c)
- 13Tomas Inciarte
- 14Federico Favaro
- 15Rodrigo Silva
Replacements
- 16Guillermo Pujadas
- 17Joaquin Jaunsolo
- 18Juan Rombys
- 19Ignacio Dotti
- 20Juan Gaminara
- 21Santiago Arata
- 22Felipe Etcheverry
- 23Agustin Della Corte
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 635m | Carry metres | 263m |
| 18 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 40 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 11 | Offloads | 4 |
| 162 | Passes | 78 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 131 | Tackles made | 142 |
| 90.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 40 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 81.8% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | Rucks won | 83 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Kicks from hand | 18 |
| 310m | Kick metres | 437m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.