Wales v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 13
13 October 2019Egao Health (Umakana Yokana) Stadium
What the model says about Wales v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 08:15 UTC
No reading on file for this ground and day. This ground has not been located, so no altitude or conditions are published for it.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 18 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Ryan Elias+3.4
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Bradley Davies+0.8
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Aaron Shingler-2.5
- 7Justin Tipuric(c)+10.6
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Aled Davies
- 10Rhys Patchell
- 11Hallam Amos
- 12Hadleigh Parkes
- 13Owen Watkin-4.4
- 14Josh Adams+7.4
- 15Leigh Halfpenny+1.4
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Rhys Carré-1.2
- 18Wyn Jones+0.5
- 19Jake Ball+1.0
- 20Ross Moriarty-1.3
- 21James Davies
- 22Tomos Williams+0.8
- 23Gareth Davies+1.8
Uruguay
- 1Mateo Sanguinetti
- 2Germán Kessler
- 3Diego Arbelo
- 4Ignacio Dotti
- 5Manuel Leindekar
- 6Juan Gaminara(c)
- 7Santiago Civetta
- 8Alejandro Nieto
- 9Santiago Arata
- 10Felipe Berchesi
- 11Nicolas Freitas
- 12Andrés Vilaseca
- 13Juan Manuel Cat
- 14Leandro Leivas
- 15Gaston Mieres
Replacements
- 16Guillermo Pujadas
- 17Juan Echeverria
- 18Juan Rombys
- 19Diego Magno
- 20Manuel Diana
- 21Agustin Ormaechea
- 22Tomas Inciarte
- 23Rodrigo Silva
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 66.0% | Possession | 34.0% |
| 73.0% | Territory | 27.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 695m | Carry metres | 321m |
| 16 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 43 | Defenders beaten | 9 |
| 12 | Offloads | 2 |
| 245 | Passes | 73 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 98 | Tackles made | 213 |
| 92.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 43 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 94.1% | Lineout success | 66.7% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 4 |
| 8 | Scrums won | 13 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 127 | Rucks won | 62 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 312m | Kick metres | 611m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 15 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.