Italy v Namibia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
52 – 8
9 September 2023Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Etienne
What the model says about Italy v Namibia
- Kick-off
- 11:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 486 m
- Temperature
- 24.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Dino Lamb
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Luca Morisi+0.0
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Ange Capuozzo-6.5
- 15Tommaso Allan-3.0
Replacements
Namibia
- 1Des Sethie
- 2Torsten van Jaarsveld(c)
- 3Aranos Coetzee
- 4Adriaan Ludick
- 5Tjiuee Uanivi
- 6Wian Conradie
- 7Johan Retief
- 8Richard Hardwick
- 9Damian Stevens
- 10Tiaan Swanepoel
- 11JC Greyling
- 12Danco Burger
- 13Johan Deysel(c)
- 14Gerswin Mouton
- 15Divan Rossouw
Replacements
- 16Louis van der Westhuizen
- 17Jason Benade
- 18Casper Viviers
- 19Tiaan de Klerk
- 20Prince ǃGaoseb
- 21Jacques Theron
- 22Andre van der Berg
- 23Le Roux Malan
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 726m | Carry metres | 324m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 41 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 13 | Offloads | 4 |
| 178 | Passes | 141 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 129 | Tackles made | 107 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 59.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 41 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 4 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 20 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 58 | Rucks won | 78 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 28 |
| 844m | Kick metres | 1103m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 15 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Namibia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 1 |
| 7 | Conversions | — |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.