Italy v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
38 – 17
20 September 2023Allianz Riviera, Nice
What the model says about Italy v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 28 m
- Temperature
- 20.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 11.2 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 9 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 10Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Paolo Garbisi
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Lorenzo Pani
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 580m | Carry metres | 498m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 21 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 7 | Offloads | 2 |
| 177 | Passes | 115 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 136 | Tackles made | 119 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 74.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 21 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 86.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 6 |
| 75.0% | Scrum success | 67.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 74 | Rucks won | 75 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 28 |
| 927m | Kick metres | 902m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.