England v Samoa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 17
7 October 2023Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille
What the model says about England v Samoa
- Kick-off
- 15:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 41 m
- Temperature
- 16.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 21 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Dan Cole+1.5
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Courtney Lawes-2.7
- 7Tom Curry+0.8
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Jonny May-3.0
- 12Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 13Manu Tuilagi+5.2
- 14Joe Marchant
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Joe Marler+2.8
- 18Kyle Sinckler
- 19George Martin+7.1
- 20Billy Vunipola+6.3
- 21Danny Care+3.0
- 22Marcus Smith-0.6
- 23Ollie Lawrence-1.4
Samoa
- 1Jordan Lay
- 2Sama Malolo
- 3Michael Alaalatoa(c)
- 4Sam Slade
- 5Brian Alainu'uese
- 6Theo McFarland
- 7Fritz Lee
- 8Steven Luatua
- 9Jonathan Taumateine
- 10Lima Sopoaga
- 11Neria Fomai
- 12Danny Toala
- 13Tumua Manu
- 14Nigel Ah Wong
- 15Duncan Paia'aua
Replacements
- 16Seilala Lam
- 17James Lay
- 18Paul Alo-Emile
- 19So'otala Fa'aso'o
- 20Alamanda Motuga
- 21Melani Matavao
- 22Christian Leali'ifano
- 23Miracle Faiʻilagi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 402m | Carry metres | 434m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 2 | Offloads | 10 |
| 113 | Passes | 135 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 126 | Tackles made | 104 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 5 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 85.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 83.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 61 | Rucks won | 67 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 25 |
| 636m | Kick metres | 585m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Samoa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.