Canada v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
19 – 16
19 September 2026Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium, Tokyo · neutral venue
What the model says about Canada v USA
- Kick-off
- 07:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 40 m
- Temperature
- 22.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 17.7 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Possession and territory
| Canada | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| Canada | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Carries | 100 |
| 289m | Carry metres | 226m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 15 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 7 | Offloads | 3 |
| 142 | Passes | 120 |
Defence
| Canada | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | Tackles made | 128 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 15 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Canada | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 75.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 1 | Scrums won | 13 |
Breakdown
| Canada | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 82 | Rucks won | 71 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Canada | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 460m | Kick metres | 736m |
Discipline
| Canada | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Canada | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.