5,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Each team's average across the simulations, rounded to whole matches and points so that every row adds up. Win % is the chance of finishing first. Learn more

Hurricanes50.0%161114+1421258
Chiefs21.7%161015+981254
Crusaders20.6%161015+871153
Brumbies2.7%16808+71143
Blues2.4%16808-251042
Western Force1.2%16718-321040
Queensland Reds0.8%16709-231139
New South Wales Waratahs0.4%166010-681034
Highlanders0.1%166010-83933
Fijian Drua0.1%165011-1031030

Position Distribution

Percentage of simulations each team finished in each position. Darker cells indicate higher likelihood.

Team#1#2#3#4#5#6#7#8#9#10
Hurricanes53.2%24.7%13.2%5.5%2.2%0.9%0.2%0.1%--
Chiefs22.9%30.3%23.9%11.9%5.9%2.8%1.5%0.5%0.3%-
Crusaders19.1%28.4%25.1%13.4%7.4%3.7%2.0%0.7%0.3%-
Brumbies2.1%6.3%12.1%18.9%18.0%15.7%11.3%8.1%4.7%2.8%
Blues1.5%4.2%9.1%15.6%18.1%15.9%13.9%9.9%7.5%4.4%
Western Force0.6%2.5%6.6%12.8%14.9%16.2%15.6%14.0%10.3%6.4%
Queensland Reds0.4%2.0%5.9%11.0%15.7%16.7%16.8%13.7%11.0%6.8%
New South Wales Waratahs0.2%0.9%2.0%5.3%7.5%11.7%14.6%17.5%20.5%19.8%
Highlanders-0.4%1.3%3.9%6.0%9.9%13.9%19.6%22.3%22.8%
Fijian Drua-0.3%0.7%1.9%4.4%6.5%10.2%15.9%23.2%36.9%

Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.

Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.

Quarter-finals

  • Crusaders29% · 23%
  • Brumbies28% · 12%
  • Chiefs27% · 21%
  • Blues25% · 11%
  • Western Force23% · 7%
5 more
  • Queensland Reds23% · 7%
  • Hurricanes14% · 12%
  • New South Wales Waratahs14% · 3%
  • Highlanders11% · 2%
  • Fijian Drua7% · 1%
  • Brumbies37% · 18%
  • Blues34% · 16%
  • Western Force28% · 11%
  • Queensland Reds27% · 11%
  • Crusaders21% · 15%
5 more
  • Chiefs18% · 14%
  • New South Wales Waratahs13% · 5%
  • Highlanders10% · 3%
  • Hurricanes8% · 6%
  • Fijian Drua6% · 2%

Semi-finals

  • Hurricanes58% · 47%
  • Chiefs35% · 22%
  • Crusaders31% · 18%
  • Brumbies20% · 4%
  • Blues18% · 4%
5 more
  • Queensland Reds13% · 2%
  • Western Force12% · 2%
  • New South Wales Waratahs6% · 1%
  • Highlanders4% · <1%
  • Fijian Drua2% · <1%
  • Crusaders54% · 29%
  • Chiefs53% · 30%
  • Hurricanes37% · 26%
  • Brumbies19% · 5%
  • Blues14% · 4%
5 more
  • Western Force9% · 2%
  • Queensland Reds8% · 2%
  • New South Wales Waratahs3% · <1%
  • Highlanders2% · <1%
  • Fijian Drua1% · <1%

Final

  • Hurricanes73% · 50%
  • Chiefs52% · 22%
  • Crusaders47% · 21%
  • Brumbies9% · 3%
  • Blues8% · 2%
4 more
  • Western Force4% · 1%
  • Queensland Reds3% · <1%
  • New South Wales Waratahs2% · <1%
  • Highlanders<1% · <1%

All 80 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.

Rugby Tournament Predictor — unofficial, and not affiliated with any union, club or competition. About and sourcesForecasts are probabilities, not predictions of one result.

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