Super Rugby Pacific 2027
Official site5,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Each team's average across the simulations, rounded to whole matches and points so that every row adds up. Win % is the chance of finishing first. Learn more
| 50.0% | 16 | 11 | 1 | 4 | +142 | 12 | 58 | |
| 21.7% | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | +98 | 12 | 54 | |
| 20.6% | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | +87 | 11 | 53 | |
| 2.7% | 16 | 8 | 0 | 8 | +7 | 11 | 43 | |
| 2.4% | 16 | 8 | 0 | 8 | -25 | 10 | 42 | |
| 1.2% | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | -32 | 10 | 40 | |
| 0.8% | 16 | 7 | 0 | 9 | -23 | 11 | 39 | |
| 0.4% | 16 | 6 | 0 | 10 | -68 | 10 | 34 | |
| 0.1% | 16 | 6 | 0 | 10 | -83 | 9 | 33 | |
| 0.1% | 16 | 5 | 0 | 11 | -103 | 10 | 30 |
Position Distribution
Percentage of simulations each team finished in each position. Darker cells indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53.2% | 24.7% | 13.2% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | - | - | |
| 22.9% | 30.3% | 23.9% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | - | |
| 19.1% | 28.4% | 25.1% | 13.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | - | |
| 2.1% | 6.3% | 12.1% | 18.9% | 18.0% | 15.7% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 2.8% | |
| 1.5% | 4.2% | 9.1% | 15.6% | 18.1% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 4.4% | |
| 0.6% | 2.5% | 6.6% | 12.8% | 14.9% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 10.3% | 6.4% | |
| 0.4% | 2.0% | 5.9% | 11.0% | 15.7% | 16.7% | 16.8% | 13.7% | 11.0% | 6.8% | |
| 0.2% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 14.6% | 17.5% | 20.5% | 19.8% | |
| - | 0.4% | 1.3% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 13.9% | 19.6% | 22.3% | 22.8% | |
| - | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 15.9% | 23.2% | 36.9% |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Quarter-finals
Crusaders29% · 23%
Brumbies28% · 12%
Chiefs27% · 21%
Blues25% · 11%
Western Force23% · 7%
5 more
Queensland Reds23% · 7%
Hurricanes14% · 12%
New South Wales Waratahs14% · 3%
Highlanders11% · 2%
Fijian Drua7% · 1%
Brumbies37% · 18%
Blues34% · 16%
Western Force28% · 11%
Queensland Reds27% · 11%
Crusaders21% · 15%
5 more
Chiefs18% · 14%
New South Wales Waratahs13% · 5%
Highlanders10% · 3%
Hurricanes8% · 6%
Fijian Drua6% · 2%
Semi-finals
Hurricanes58% · 47%
Chiefs35% · 22%
Crusaders31% · 18%
Brumbies20% · 4%
Blues18% · 4%
5 more
Queensland Reds13% · 2%
Western Force12% · 2%
New South Wales Waratahs6% · 1%
Highlanders4% · <1%
Fijian Drua2% · <1%
Crusaders54% · 29%
Chiefs53% · 30%
Hurricanes37% · 26%
Brumbies19% · 5%
Blues14% · 4%
5 more
Western Force9% · 2%
Queensland Reds8% · 2%
New South Wales Waratahs3% · <1%
Highlanders2% · <1%
Fijian Drua1% · <1%
Final
Hurricanes73% · 50%
Chiefs52% · 22%
Crusaders47% · 21%
Brumbies9% · 3%
Blues8% · 2%
4 more
Western Force4% · 1%
Queensland Reds3% · <1%
New South Wales Waratahs2% · <1%
Highlanders<1% · <1%
All 80 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.