Super Rugby Pacific 2027
Official site5,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Averaged across all simulations. Win % is the probability of finishing first. Learn more
 Hurricanes | 46.1% | 57.0 | +129.4 | 11.3 | 0.4 | 4.3 |
 Chiefs | 24.0% | 52.5 | +92.6 | 10.3 | 0.4 | 5.4 |
 Crusaders | 20.9% | 51.8 | +82.8 | 10.1 | 0.4 | 5.5 |
 Brumbies | 3.7% | 43.0 | +5.3 | 8.1 | 0.4 | 7.4 |
 Blues | 1.7% | 39.6 | -26.9 | 7.4 | 0.4 | 8.2 |
 Queensland Reds | 1.5% | 39.3 | -10.9 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 8.4 |
 Western Force | 1.2% | 37.8 | -29.0 | 6.9 | 0.4 | 8.7 |
 New South Wales Waratahs | 0.4% | 33.0 | -63.8 | 5.7 | 0.4 | 9.9 |
 Highlanders | 0.3% | 33.1 | -77.5 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 9.8 |
 Fijian Drua | 0.1% | 30.6 | -102.0 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 10.4 |
Position Distribution
Percentage of simulations each team finished in each position. Darker cells indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hurricanes | 50.1% | 26.0% | 13.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | - | - |
| Chiefs | 23.5% | 27.4% | 23.2% | 12.7% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Crusaders | 20.4% | 27.5% | 23.5% | 13.3% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Brumbies | 2.9% | 7.7% | 13.5% | 19.9% | 16.8% | 14.0% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 2.5% |
| Blues | 1.1% | 3.5% | 7.9% | 13.4% | 17.1% | 15.9% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 5.4% |
| Queensland Reds | 1.0% | 3.4% | 7.3% | 13.0% | 17.0% | 16.4% | 15.2% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% |
| Western Force | 0.7% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 16.3% | 15.5% | 14.7% | 12.1% | 8.1% |
| New South Wales Waratahs | 0.1% | 0.8% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 7.1% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 17.6% | 21.8% | 21.1% |
| Highlanders | 0.1% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 11.1% | 14.1% | 18.5% | 20.7% | 21.2% |
| Fijian Drua | - | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 11.8% | 16.0% | 22.1% | 34.6% |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Quarter-finals
- Crusaders28% · 22%
- Brumbies28% · 13%
- Chiefs27% · 21%
- Blues24% · 9%
- Queensland Reds24% · 7%
5 more
- Western Force22% · 7%
- Hurricanes15% · 13%
- Highlanders13% · 3%
- New South Wales Waratahs12% · 3%
- Fijian Drua8% · 1%
- Brumbies37% · 19%
- Blues31% · 14%
- Queensland Reds30% · 12%
- Western Force25% · 10%
- Crusaders20% · 15%
5 more
- Chiefs19% · 14%
- Highlanders12% · 4%
- New South Wales Waratahs12% · 4%
- Hurricanes8% · 6%
- Fijian Drua7% · 2%
Semi-finals
- Hurricanes55% · 44%
- Chiefs36% · 23%
- Crusaders33% · 19%
- Brumbies22% · 5%
- Blues16% · 3%
5 more
- Queensland Reds13% · 3%
- Western Force12% · 2%
- Highlanders6% · <1%
- New South Wales Waratahs5% · <1%
- Fijian Drua2% · <1%
- Crusaders51% · 27%
- Chiefs51% · 29%
- Hurricanes40% · 28%
- Brumbies21% · 6%
- Blues12% · 3%
5 more
- Queensland Reds11% · 2%
- Western Force8% · 2%
- Highlanders3% · <1%
- New South Wales Waratahs3% · <1%
- Fijian Drua1% · <1%
Final
- Hurricanes72% · 46%
- Chiefs52% · 24%
- Crusaders46% · 21%
- Brumbies11% · 4%
- Blues6% · 2%
4 more
- Queensland Reds5% · 2%
- Western Force5% · 1%
- Highlanders2% · <1%
- New South Wales Waratahs1% · <1%
All 80 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.