5,000 Monte Carlo simulations · 42 actual results locked in
Each team's average across the simulations, rounded to whole matches and points so that every row adds up. Win % is the chance of finishing first. Learn more
 Stade Toulousain | 46.7% | 26 | 18 | 1 | 7 | +213 | 17 | 91 |
 Montpellier Herault | 20.3% | 26 | 16 | 1 | 9 | +176 | 15 | 81 |
 Bordeaux Begles | 9.7% | 26 | 15 | 1 | 10 | +145 | 16 | 78 |
 Pau | 9.5% | 26 | 16 | 1 | 9 | +111 | 13 | 79 |
 La Rochelle | 9.5% | 26 | 16 | 0 | 10 | +80 | 14 | 78 |
 Stade Francais Paris | 2.1% | 26 | 13 | 1 | 12 | +15 | 13 | 67 |
 Toulon | 1.0% | 26 | 12 | 1 | 13 | +12 | 14 | 64 |
 Bayonne | 0.6% | 26 | 13 | 1 | 12 | -46 | 11 | 65 |
 Racing 92 | 0.5% | 26 | 12 | 0 | 14 | -47 | 13 | 61 |
 Lyon | 0.1% | 26 | 11 | 1 | 14 | -59 | 12 | 58 |
 Clermont Auvergne | 0.0% | 26 | 10 | 0 | 16 | -107 | 13 | 53 |
 Perpignan | 0.0% | 26 | 10 | 0 | 16 | -151 | 11 | 51 |
 Castres Olympique | 0.0% | 26 | 10 | 0 | 16 | -115 | 10 | 50 |
 Vannes | 0.0% | 26 | 6 | 0 | 20 | -228 | 10 | 34 |
Position Distribution
Percentage of simulations each team finished in each position. Darker cells indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | #8 | #9 | #10 | #11 | #12 | #13 | #14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 63.9% | 20.1% | 8.7% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Montpellier Herault | 12.1% | 24.4% | 20.4% | 16.7% | 12.4% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | - | - | - |
| Bordeaux Begles | 8.0% | 16.4% | 19.3% | 19.5% | 15.1% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | - | - |
| Pau | 8.5% | 17.7% | 20.2% | 18.0% | 14.8% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | - | - |
| La Rochelle | 6.1% | 15.9% | 19.6% | 18.7% | 15.7% | 11.0% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | - | - |
| Stade Francais Paris | 0.6% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 18.3% | 15.9% | 13.0% | 10.1% | 6.8% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Toulon | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 16.0% | 16.6% | 13.6% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Bayonne | 0.2% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 16.7% | 16.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| Racing 92 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 14.6% | 16.1% | 14.6% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 0.7% |
| Lyon | - | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 15.9% | 16.6% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 7.9% | 1.2% |
| Clermont Auvergne | - | - | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 19.4% | 20.3% | 18.9% | 3.8% |
| Perpignan | - | - | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 11.1% | 17.7% | 21.7% | 25.9% | 6.3% |
| Castres Olympique | - | - | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 16.6% | 23.1% | 25.4% | 5.3% |
| Vannes | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.6% | 12.2% | 82.2% |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Quarter-finals
- La Rochelle31% · 19%
- Pau29% · 17%
- Bordeaux Begles29% · 17%
- Montpellier Herault27% · 19%
- Stade Francais Paris23% · 8%
8 more
- Bayonne15% · 4%
- Toulon15% · 4%
- Racing 9210% · 3%
- Stade Toulousain10% · 8%
- Lyon6% · 1%
- Clermont Auvergne2% · <1%
- Castres Olympique2% · <1%
- Perpignan2% · <1%
- Bordeaux Begles35% · 19%
- La Rochelle34% · 19%
- Pau33% · 17%
- Montpellier Herault29% · 19%
- Stade Francais Paris21% · 8%
8 more
- Toulon14% · 5%
- Bayonne13% · 4%
- Racing 928% · 3%
- Stade Toulousain6% · 4%
- Lyon4% · 1%
- Clermont Auvergne1% · <1%
- Castres Olympique<1% · <1%
- Perpignan<1% · <1%
Semi-finals
- Stade Toulousain68% · 53%
- Montpellier Herault29% · 15%
- Bordeaux Begles25% · 10%
- La Rochelle25% · 9%
- Pau24% · 9%
5 more
- Stade Francais Paris11% · 2%
- Toulon6% · 1%
- Bayonne6% · <1%
- Racing 924% · <1%
- Lyon2% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault46% · 28%
- Pau37% · 16%
- La Rochelle35% · 17%
- Bordeaux Begles35% · 15%
- Stade Toulousain29% · 19%
5 more
- Stade Francais Paris8% · 3%
- Toulon4% · 1%
- Bayonne3% · <1%
- Racing 922% · <1%
- Lyon<1% · <1%
Final
- Stade Toulousain71% · 47%
- Montpellier Herault42% · 20%
- Pau25% · 10%
- La Rochelle25% · 10%
- Bordeaux Begles25% · 10%
4 more
- Stade Francais Paris5% · 2%
- Toulon3% · 1%
- Bayonne2% · <1%
- Racing 921% · <1%
All 182 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.