Top 14 2026

Averaged across all simulations. Win % is the probability of finishing first. Learn more

Team	Win %	Avg Pts	Avg PD	Avg W	Avg D	Avg L
Stade Toulousain	63.7%	89.9	+309.8	17.6	0.0	8.4
Stade Francais Paris	12.4%	84.1	+226.2	14.8	1.0	10.2
Montpellier Herault	8.1%	87.5	+194.8	16.7	1.0	8.3
Bordeaux Begles	6.1%	79.6	+125.4	14.7	0.0	11.2
La Rochelle	3.8%	82.1	+248.1	16.0	0.1	10.0
Pau	2.5%	81.7	+134.2	16.5	0.0	9.5
Clermont Auvergne	2.5%	78.7	+123.0	15.7	0.1	10.2
Racing 92	0.8%	80.5	+94.1	15.4	1.1	9.5
BABayonne	0.0%	61.1	-83.9	11.7	0.0	14.2
Castres Olympique	0.0%	59.9	-104.2	10.7	0.0	15.2
Toulon	0.0%	59.9	-121.2	11.7	0.0	14.3
Lyon	0.0%	56.3	-78.7	10.6	0.0	15.4
PEPerpignan	0.0%	39.2	-248.8	6.3	0.1	19.6
UMUS Montauban	0.0%	13.6	-818.8	1.2	1.0	23.8

Position Distribution

Percentage of simulations each team finished in each position. Darker cells indicate higher likelihood.

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8	#9	#10	#11	#12	#13	#14
Stade Toulousain	80.4%	18.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Stade Francais Paris	0.1%	9.0%	52.0%	26.4%	9.5%	2.7%	0.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Montpellier Herault	18.8%	59.6%	12.3%	7.8%	1.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Bordeaux Begles	-	-	-	1.0%	16.1%	35.6%	31.1%	16.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-
La Rochelle	0.4%	6.6%	23.1%	15.0%	19.9%	15.6%	11.9%	7.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Pau	-	-	6.8%	31.9%	17.5%	18.2%	20.3%	5.3%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clermont Auvergne	-	0.1%	2.2%	8.9%	14.3%	14.4%	18.1%	42.0%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Racing 92	0.4%	6.5%	2.5%	8.7%	21.2%	13.4%	18.4%	28.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-
BABayonne	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	47.4%	26.4%	22.5%	3.7%	-	-
Castres Olympique	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	25.3%	27.8%	35.0%	12.0%	-	-
Toulon	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	20.9%	31.2%	20.9%	27.0%	-	-
Lyon	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	6.4%	14.6%	21.6%	57.4%	-	-
PEPerpignan	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	100.0%	-
UMUS Montauban	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	100.0%

Each tie lists the teams that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome. Select a tie for the full list, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.