182 pool fixtures · 5,000 simulations · knockout ties are on the overview, in the bracket

Round 1

US Montauban
23-32average
Bayonne
26%

2% draw

72%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 18 to US Montauban by 1 · median Bayonne by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bayonne by 7 is 25-18 as readily as 36-29.

Toulon
23-29average
Bordeaux Begles
25%

3% draw

72%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 14 to Toulon by 1 · median Bordeaux Begles by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Castres Olympique
25-27average
Stade Toulousain
35%

3% draw

62%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 9 to Castres Olympique by 4 · median Stade Toulousain by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

Clermont Auvergne
26-23average
Stade Francais Paris
58%

3% draw

40%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 6 to Clermont Auvergne by 12 · median Clermont Auvergne by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

La Rochelle
27-22average
Racing 92
63%

3% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 3 to La Rochelle by 15 · median La Rochelle by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 31-27.

Perpignan
24-26average
Lyon
45%

3% draw

52%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 10 to Perpignan by 7 · median Lyon by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Montpellier Herault
31-20average
Pau
73%

3% draw

25%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Montpellier Herault by 19 · median Montpellier Herault by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Round 2

Bayonne
25-25average
Toulon
52%

3% draw

46%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 7 to Bayonne by 8 · median Bayonne by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bayonne by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

US Montauban
20-37average
Stade Toulousain
13%

2% draw

85%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 27 to Stade Toulousain by 4 · median Stade Toulousain by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 13 is 29-16 as readily as 41-28.

Bordeaux Begles
28-22average
Stade Francais Paris
64%

3% draw

34%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 3 to Bordeaux Begles by 16 · median Bordeaux Begles by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Castres Olympique
24-27average
Racing 92
47%

3% draw

51%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 10 to Castres Olympique by 6 · median Racing 92 by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Perpignan
24-28average
Clermont Auvergne
29%

3% draw

69%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 12 to Perpignan by 2 · median Clermont Auvergne by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 34-30.

Pau
25-24average
La Rochelle
55%

3% draw

42%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 6 to Pau by 9 · median Pau by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Montpellier Herault
33-19average
Lyon
83%

2% draw

15%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 3 to Montpellier Herault by 22 · median Montpellier Herault by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 37-26.

Round 3

Stade Toulousain
32-20average
Bayonne
83%

3% draw

14%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 2 to Stade Toulousain by 20 · median Stade Toulousain by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Toulon
24-28average
Stade Francais Paris
35%

3% draw

62%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 13 to Toulon by 4 · median Stade Francais Paris by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 33-29.

Racing 92
37-20average
US Montauban
87%

2% draw

11%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 5 to Racing 92 by 27 · median Racing 92 by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 41-27.

Perpignan
22-32average
Bordeaux Begles
18%

3% draw

79%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 18 to Bordeaux Begles by 1 · median Bordeaux Begles by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 8 is 25-17 as readily as 36-28.

Pau
28-22average
Castres Olympique
67%

3% draw

31%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 2 to Pau by 15 · median Pau by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.

Clermont Auvergne
26-23average
Montpellier Herault
54%

3% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 6 to Clermont Auvergne by 11 · median Clermont Auvergne by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Lyon
25-27average
La Rochelle
40%

3% draw

58%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 9 to Lyon by 5 · median La Rochelle by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 33-31.

Round 4

Bayonne
23-28average
Stade Francais Paris
35%

2% draw

63%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 12 to Bayonne by 4 · median Stade Francais Paris by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 33-29.

Stade Toulousain
28-21average
Racing 92
68%

3% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 2 to Stade Toulousain by 15 · median Stade Toulousain by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Perpignan
24-27average
Toulon
47%

3% draw

51%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 11 to Perpignan by 7 · median Toulon by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 31-30.

US Montauban
21-35average
Pau
18%

2% draw

80%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 23 to Pau by 2 · median Pau by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 80 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 11 is 27-16 as readily as 39-28.

Bordeaux Begles
28-22average
Montpellier Herault
57%

3% draw

41%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 4 to Bordeaux Begles by 14 · median Bordeaux Begles by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Castres Olympique
28-22average
Lyon
60%

2% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 4 to Castres Olympique by 15 · median Castres Olympique by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

La Rochelle
26-22average
Clermont Auvergne
63%

3% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 4 to La Rochelle by 13 · median La Rochelle by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 31-27.

Round 5

Racing 92
31-20average
Bayonne
82%

2% draw

16%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 2 to Racing 92 by 20 · median Racing 92 by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.

Stade Francais Paris
34-18average
Perpignan
85%

3% draw

13%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 4 to Stade Francais Paris by 24 · median Stade Francais Paris by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 12 is 26-14 as readily as 38-26.

Pau
24-25average
Stade Toulousain
48%

3% draw

50%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 8 to Pau by 7 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 19-19 as readily as 29-29.

Montpellier Herault
33-19average
Toulon
84%

2% draw

14%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 3 to Montpellier Herault by 22 · median Montpellier Herault by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 37-26.

Lyon
36-19average
US Montauban
81%

3% draw

16%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 3 to Lyon by 27 · median Lyon by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 13 is 28-15 as readily as 39-26.

La Rochelle
27-22average
Bordeaux Begles
52%

3% draw

46%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 5 to La Rochelle by 12 · median La Rochelle by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 1 is 19-18 as readily as 30-29.

Clermont Auvergne
29-21average
Castres Olympique
70%

3% draw

27%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 1 to Clermont Auvergne by 16 · median Clermont Auvergne by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Round 6

Bayonne
28-22average
Perpignan
64%

3% draw

33%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Perpignan by 3 to Bayonne by 15 · median Bayonne by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bayonne by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Racing 92
27-21average
Pau
65%

3% draw

33%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 3 to Racing 92 by 14 · median Racing 92 by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 31-27.

Stade Francais Paris
26-23average
Montpellier Herault
57%

3% draw

41%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 6 to Stade Francais Paris by 12 · median Stade Francais Paris by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Lyon
24-28average
Stade Toulousain
30%

2% draw

68%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 12 to Lyon by 3 · median Stade Toulousain by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Toulon
24-27average
La Rochelle
38%

2% draw

59%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 10 to Toulon by 5 · median La Rochelle by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

US Montauban
21-37average
Clermont Auvergne
14%

3% draw

83%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 26 to Clermont Auvergne by 3 · median Clermont Auvergne by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 36 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 12 is 28-16 as readily as 40-28.

Castres Olympique
24-28average
Bordeaux Begles
32%

2% draw

66%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 11 to Castres Olympique by 3 · median Bordeaux Begles by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 33-29.

Round 7

Pau
31-20average
Bayonne
71%

3% draw

26%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 1 to Pau by 20 · median Pau by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Montpellier Herault
35-18average
Perpignan
87%

2% draw

11%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 4 to Montpellier Herault by 26 · median Montpellier Herault by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 39-25.

Racing 92
31-20average
Lyon
79%

2% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 1 to Racing 92 by 20 · median Racing 92 by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.

Stade Francais Paris
27-22average
La Rochelle
64%

3% draw

33%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 3 to Stade Francais Paris by 14 · median Stade Francais Paris by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Stade Toulousain
29-21average
Clermont Auvergne
67%

2% draw

31%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 2 to Stade Toulousain by 16 · median Stade Toulousain by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Castres Olympique
28-22average
Toulon
59%

2% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 4 to Castres Olympique by 14 · median Castres Olympique by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Bordeaux Begles
39-21average
US Montauban
91%

3% draw

6%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 5 to Bordeaux Begles by 27 · median Bordeaux Begles by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 36 and 83 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 14 is 30-16 as readily as 42-28.

Round 8

Montpellier Herault
33-19average
Bayonne
83%

3% draw

14%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 3 to Montpellier Herault by 24 · median Montpellier Herault by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 37-26.

Lyon
24-27average
Pau
45%

2% draw

53%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 11 to Lyon by 6 · median Pau by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

La Rochelle
34-18average
Perpignan
84%

2% draw

13%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 3 to La Rochelle by 26 · median La Rochelle by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 13 is 27-14 as readily as 38-25.

Clermont Auvergne
26-22average
Racing 92
58%

3% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 5 to Clermont Auvergne by 12 · median Clermont Auvergne by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 30-28.

Castres Olympique
25-26average
Stade Francais Paris
41%

2% draw

56%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 10 to Castres Olympique by 6 · median Stade Francais Paris by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Stade Toulousain
27-23average
Bordeaux Begles
52%

3% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 5 to Stade Toulousain by 12 · median Stade Toulousain by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Toulon
36-20average
US Montauban
81%

3% draw

16%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 2 to Toulon by 27 · median Toulon by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 79 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 12 is 28-16 as readily as 39-27.

Round 9

Bayonne
26-25average
Lyon
52%

2% draw

46%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 7 to Bayonne by 9 · median Bayonne by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bayonne by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Montpellier Herault
28-22average
La Rochelle
66%

2% draw

32%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 3 to Montpellier Herault by 16 · median Montpellier Herault by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Pau
26-24average
Clermont Auvergne
55%

3% draw

42%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 6 to Pau by 10 · median Pau by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Perpignan
26-23average
Castres Olympique
50%

3% draw

48%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 6 to Perpignan by 11 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 19-19 as readily as 30-30.

Bordeaux Begles
29-21average
Racing 92
68%

3% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 1 to Bordeaux Begles by 17 · median Bordeaux Begles by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

US Montauban
21-37average
Stade Francais Paris
14%

2% draw

84%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 25 to Stade Francais Paris by 3 · median Stade Francais Paris by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 12 is 28-16 as readily as 40-28.

Stade Toulousain
32-20average
Toulon
84%

3% draw

13%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 2 to Stade Toulousain by 20 · median Stade Toulousain by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Round 10

La Rochelle
31-20average
Bayonne
79%

3% draw

18%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 1 to La Rochelle by 19 · median La Rochelle by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Lyon
24-27average
Clermont Auvergne
37%

3% draw

61%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 9 to Lyon by 4 · median Clermont Auvergne by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Montpellier Herault
32-20average
Castres Olympique
78%

3% draw

20%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 1 to Montpellier Herault by 21 · median Montpellier Herault by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 36-27.

Bordeaux Begles
30-20average
Pau
73%

3% draw

25%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Bordeaux Begles by 19 · median Bordeaux Begles by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 8 is 23-15 as readily as 34-26.

Perpignan
34-19average
US Montauban
79%

3% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Perpignan by 1 to Perpignan by 24 · median Perpignan by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Perpignan by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 38-27.

Toulon
25-26average
Racing 92
44%

3% draw

54%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 9 to Toulon by 7 · median Racing 92 by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Stade Francais Paris
26-23average
Stade Toulousain
53%

3% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 6 to Stade Francais Paris by 12 · median Stade Francais Paris by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Round 11

Bayonne
25-27average
Clermont Auvergne
37%

3% draw

60%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 11 to Bayonne by 5 · median Clermont Auvergne by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

La Rochelle
30-21average
Castres Olympique
74%

2% draw

24%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to La Rochelle by 18 · median La Rochelle by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Bordeaux Begles
33-19average
Lyon
82%

3% draw

16%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 2 to Bordeaux Begles by 24 · median Bordeaux Begles by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 37-26.

Montpellier Herault
37-20average
US Montauban
91%

2% draw

6%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 5 to Montpellier Herault by 27 · median Montpellier Herault by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 82 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 42-28.

Toulon
25-26average
Pau
44%

2% draw

54%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 9 to Toulon by 7 · median Pau by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Stade Toulousain
35-19average
Perpignan
86%

2% draw

11%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 4 to Stade Toulousain by 26 · median Stade Toulousain by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 13 is 27-14 as readily as 39-26.

Racing 92
25-23average
Stade Francais Paris
58%

3% draw

40%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 6 to Racing 92 by 10 · median Racing 92 by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 68 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 30-28.

Round 12

Bayonne
24-26average
Castres Olympique
47%

2% draw

50%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 9 to Bayonne by 7 · median Castres Olympique by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Clermont Auvergne
24-27average
Bordeaux Begles
49%

3% draw

48%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 11 to Clermont Auvergne by 6 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

La Rochelle
37-20average
US Montauban
91%

2% draw

6%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 5 to La Rochelle by 26 · median La Rochelle by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 80 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 41-27.

Lyon
27-23average
Toulon
56%

3% draw

42%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 5 to Lyon by 13 · median Lyon by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 31-29.

Stade Toulousain
26-22average
Montpellier Herault
53%

2% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 6 to Stade Toulousain by 12 · median Stade Toulousain by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 1 is 19-18 as readily as 29-28.

Pau
26-24average
Stade Francais Paris
52%

3% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 7 to Pau by 10 · median Pau by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Racing 92
32-20average
Perpignan
78%

3% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 1 to Racing 92 by 20 · median Racing 92 by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 36-27.

Round 13

Bordeaux Begles
33-19average
Bayonne
84%

3% draw

14%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 3 to Bordeaux Begles by 22 · median Bordeaux Begles by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 37-26.

US Montauban
23-32average
Castres Olympique
22%

2% draw

75%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 17 to Castres Olympique by 1 · median Castres Olympique by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 7 is 25-18 as readily as 36-29.

Clermont Auvergne
31-21average
Toulon
77%

2% draw

21%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 1 to Clermont Auvergne by 18 · median Clermont Auvergne by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

La Rochelle
26-23average
Stade Toulousain
53%

2% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 6 to La Rochelle by 11 · median La Rochelle by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Stade Francais Paris
32-19average
Lyon
79%

2% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 1 to Stade Francais Paris by 21 · median Stade Francais Paris by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Racing 92
25-24average
Montpellier Herault
51%

3% draw

46%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 7 to Racing 92 by 10 · median Racing 92 by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Pau
32-19average
Perpignan
77%

3% draw

20%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 1 to Pau by 21 · median Pau by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 35-25.

Round 14

Bayonne
36-19average
US Montauban
84%

2% draw

14%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 3 to Bayonne by 27 · median Bayonne by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bayonne by 13 is 28-15 as readily as 40-27.

Bordeaux Begles
33-19average
Toulon
81%

2% draw

17%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 2 to Bordeaux Begles by 24 · median Bordeaux Begles by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 37-26.

Stade Toulousain
31-21average
Castres Olympique
79%

2% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 1 to Stade Toulousain by 18 · median Stade Toulousain by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Stade Francais Paris
28-21average
Clermont Auvergne
64%

2% draw

34%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 3 to Stade Francais Paris by 15 · median Stade Francais Paris by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Racing 92
27-23average
La Rochelle
52%

2% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 5 to Racing 92 by 12 · median Racing 92 by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Lyon
30-20average
Perpignan
74%

3% draw

23%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Lyon by 19 · median Lyon by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 8 is 23-15 as readily as 34-26.

Pau
25-25average
Montpellier Herault
47%

3% draw

51%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 8 to Pau by 7 · median Montpellier Herault by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Round 15

Toulon
29-21average
Bayonne
68%

2% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 2 to Toulon by 17 · median Toulon by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Stade Toulousain
37-19average
US Montauban
91%

3% draw

7%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 5 to Stade Toulousain by 27 · median Stade Toulousain by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 36 and 80 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 41-27.

Stade Francais Paris
26-23average
Bordeaux Begles
50%

2% draw

48%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 6 to Stade Francais Paris by 11 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 19-19 as readily as 30-30.

Racing 92
29-22average
Castres Olympique
71%

2% draw

26%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 1 to Racing 92 by 15 · median Racing 92 by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Clermont Auvergne
34-18average
Perpignan
82%

2% draw

16%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 3 to Clermont Auvergne by 25 · median Clermont Auvergne by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 12 is 26-14 as readily as 37-25.

La Rochelle
28-21average
Pau
69%

2% draw

29%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 2 to La Rochelle by 16 · median La Rochelle by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Lyon
24-28average
Montpellier Herault
30%

3% draw

67%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 12 to Lyon by 3 · median Montpellier Herault by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 33-29.

Round 16

Bayonne
24-28average
Stade Toulousain
29%

2% draw

69%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 13 to Bayonne by 3 · median Stade Toulousain by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Stade Francais Paris
31-20average
Toulon
79%

2% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 1 to Stade Francais Paris by 20 · median Stade Francais Paris by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.

US Montauban
21-36average
Racing 92
16%

2% draw

82%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 25 to Racing 92 by 2 · median Racing 92 by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 12 is 28-16 as readily as 40-28.

Bordeaux Begles
34-19average
Perpignan
87%

2% draw

11%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 4 to Bordeaux Begles by 25 · median Bordeaux Begles by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 13 is 27-14 as readily as 38-25.

Castres Olympique
27-24average
Pau
53%

3% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 6 to Castres Olympique by 11 · median Castres Olympique by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Montpellier Herault
29-20average
Clermont Auvergne
68%

3% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 1 to Montpellier Herault by 18 · median Montpellier Herault by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 7 is 22-15 as readily as 33-26.

La Rochelle
32-21average
Lyon
79%

3% draw

18%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 1 to La Rochelle by 19 · median La Rochelle by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 36-27.

Round 17

Stade Francais Paris
31-21average
Bayonne
80%

3% draw

17%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 1 to Stade Francais Paris by 18 · median Stade Francais Paris by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 36-27.

Racing 92
24-25average
Stade Toulousain
48%

3% draw

49%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 9 to Racing 92 by 7 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 19-19 as readily as 29-29.

Toulon
30-22average
Perpignan
67%

3% draw

31%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Perpignan by 2 to Toulon by 17 · median Toulon by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Pau
37-20average
US Montauban
90%

3% draw

8%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 5 to Pau by 27 · median Pau by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 80 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 41-27.

Montpellier Herault
26-23average
Bordeaux Begles
59%

3% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 5 to Montpellier Herault by 12 · median Montpellier Herault by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Lyon
27-23average
Castres Olympique
59%

2% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 5 to Lyon by 13 · median Lyon by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Clermont Auvergne
26-22average
La Rochelle
60%

3% draw

38%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 5 to Clermont Auvergne by 13 · median Clermont Auvergne by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 3 is 20-17 as readily as 30-27.

Round 18

Bayonne
24-27average
Racing 92
38%

2% draw

60%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 9 to Bayonne by 5 · median Racing 92 by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 31-29.

Perpignan
23-29average
Stade Francais Paris
22%

2% draw

75%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 12 to Stade Francais Paris by 1 · median Stade Francais Paris by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Stade Toulousain
29-20average
Pau
72%

3% draw

26%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 1 to Stade Toulousain by 17 · median Stade Toulousain by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 33-26.

Toulon
24-28average
Montpellier Herault
31%

3% draw

66%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 13 to Toulon by 3 · median Montpellier Herault by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 4 is 23-19 as readily as 33-29.

US Montauban
21-33average
Lyon
23%

3% draw

74%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 22 to a draw · median Lyon by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 9 is 26-17 as readily as 37-28.

Bordeaux Begles
28-21average
La Rochelle
65%

2% draw

33%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 3 to Bordeaux Begles by 16 · median Bordeaux Begles by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Castres Olympique
24-26average
Clermont Auvergne
45%

3% draw

53%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 10 to Castres Olympique by 7 · median Clermont Auvergne by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Round 19

Perpignan
27-23average
Bayonne
50%

2% draw

48%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 6 to Perpignan by 13 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 19-19 as readily as 30-30.

Pau
25-23average
Racing 92
58%

3% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 5 to Pau by 10 · median Pau by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 30-28.

Montpellier Herault
29-21average
Stade Francais Paris
68%

3% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 2 to Montpellier Herault by 17 · median Montpellier Herault by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Stade Toulousain
33-19average
Lyon
83%

3% draw

15%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 2 to Stade Toulousain by 22 · median Stade Toulousain by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

La Rochelle
30-22average
Toulon
79%

3% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 1 to La Rochelle by 17 · median La Rochelle by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Clermont Auvergne
37-20average
US Montauban
91%

2% draw

6%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 6 to Clermont Auvergne by 27 · median Clermont Auvergne by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 41-27.

Bordeaux Begles
31-21average
Castres Olympique
79%

3% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 1 to Bordeaux Begles by 17 · median Bordeaux Begles by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Round 20

Bayonne
24-27average
Pau
37%

3% draw

61%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 10 to Bayonne by 4 · median Pau by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Perpignan
22-31average
Montpellier Herault
22%

3% draw

76%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 18 to Montpellier Herault by 1 · median Montpellier Herault by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 8 is 25-17 as readily as 36-28.

Lyon
25-26average
Racing 92
43%

3% draw

54%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 9 to Lyon by 7 · median Racing 92 by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

La Rochelle
26-23average
Stade Francais Paris
55%

2% draw

43%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 6 to La Rochelle by 11 · median La Rochelle by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Clermont Auvergne
24-26average
Stade Toulousain
43%

3% draw

55%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 9 to Clermont Auvergne by 7 · median Stade Toulousain by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Toulon
28-22average
Castres Olympique
56%

3% draw

41%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 5 to Toulon by 14 · median Toulon by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

US Montauban
22-38average
Bordeaux Begles
12%

3% draw

86%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 25 to Bordeaux Begles by 4 · median Bordeaux Begles by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 37 and 84 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 12 is 29-17 as readily as 42-30.

Round 21

Bayonne
24-29average
Montpellier Herault
29%

2% draw

69%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 13 to Bayonne by 2 · median Montpellier Herault by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Pau
30-21average
Lyon
70%

2% draw

27%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 1 to Pau by 18 · median Pau by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Perpignan
24-28average
La Rochelle
29%

3% draw

68%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 11 to Perpignan by 2 · median La Rochelle by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 34-30.

Racing 92
26-22average
Clermont Auvergne
52%

3% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 6 to Racing 92 by 11 · median Racing 92 by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 68 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 1 is 19-18 as readily as 29-28.

Stade Francais Paris
30-22average
Castres Olympique
77%

2% draw

21%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 1 to Stade Francais Paris by 16 · median Stade Francais Paris by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 34-27.

Bordeaux Begles
26-23average
Stade Toulousain
57%

3% draw

40%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 6 to Bordeaux Begles by 10 · median Bordeaux Begles by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 30-28.

US Montauban
22-32average
Toulon
26%

2% draw

72%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 18 to US Montauban by 1 · median Toulon by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 7 is 25-18 as readily as 36-29.

Round 22

Lyon
28-22average
Bayonne
71%

3% draw

27%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 1 to Lyon by 15 · median Lyon by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

La Rochelle
26-23average
Montpellier Herault
55%

3% draw

42%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 6 to La Rochelle by 11 · median La Rochelle by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Clermont Auvergne
28-21average
Pau
67%

3% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 2 to Clermont Auvergne by 16 · median Clermont Auvergne by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Castres Olympique
30-20average
Perpignan
65%

3% draw

33%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Perpignan by 2 to Castres Olympique by 19 · median Castres Olympique by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Racing 92
24-27average
Bordeaux Begles
46%

2% draw

52%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 10 to Racing 92 by 6 · median Bordeaux Begles by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Stade Francais Paris
38-20average
US Montauban
91%

3% draw

7%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 5 to Stade Francais Paris by 27 · median Stade Francais Paris by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 14 is 30-16 as readily as 41-27.

Toulon
23-28average
Stade Toulousain
30%

3% draw

67%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 13 to Toulon by 3 · median Stade Toulousain by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 33-29.

Round 23

Bayonne
24-27average
La Rochelle
38%

2% draw

60%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 12 to Bayonne by 5 · median La Rochelle by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Clermont Auvergne
30-21average
Lyon
75%

3% draw

23%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Clermont Auvergne by 18 · median Clermont Auvergne by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Castres Olympique
24-27average
Montpellier Herault
32%

3% draw

65%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 10 to Castres Olympique by 3 · median Montpellier Herault by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Pau
24-26average
Bordeaux Begles
43%

2% draw

55%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 9 to Pau by 6 · median Bordeaux Begles by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

US Montauban
24-29average
Perpignan
27%

3% draw

70%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Perpignan by 14 to US Montauban by 1 · median Perpignan by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Perpignan by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Racing 92
30-21average
Toulon
81%

3% draw

17%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 1 to Racing 92 by 16 · median Racing 92 by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 35-28.

Stade Toulousain
27-22average
Stade Francais Paris
66%

3% draw

31%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 3 to Stade Toulousain by 13 · median Stade Toulousain by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Round 24

Clermont Auvergne
32-20average
Bayonne
77%

3% draw

21%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 1 to Clermont Auvergne by 21 · median Clermont Auvergne by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 35-26.

Castres Olympique
24-26average
La Rochelle
44%

3% draw

53%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 10 to Castres Olympique by 6 · median La Rochelle by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Lyon
24-28average
Bordeaux Begles
29%

2% draw

69%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 12 to Lyon by 2 · median Bordeaux Begles by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 33-29.

US Montauban
20-37average
Montpellier Herault
13%

2% draw

85%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 27 to Montpellier Herault by 4 · median Montpellier Herault by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 36 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 13 is 29-16 as readily as 41-28.

Pau
29-22average
Toulon
69%

3% draw

29%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 2 to Pau by 15 · median Pau by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.

Perpignan
22-31average
Stade Toulousain
25%

2% draw

73%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 17 to Perpignan by 1 · median Stade Toulousain by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 35-28.

Stade Francais Paris
27-21average
Racing 92
63%

2% draw

34%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 4 to Stade Francais Paris by 14 · median Stade Francais Paris by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 68 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 31-27.

Round 25

Castres Olympique
28-22average
Bayonne
59%

3% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 4 to Castres Olympique by 15 · median Castres Olympique by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Bordeaux Begles
30-21average
Clermont Auvergne
66%

2% draw

32%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 2 to Bordeaux Begles by 18 · median Bordeaux Begles by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.

US Montauban
21-37average
La Rochelle
15%

2% draw

82%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 26 to La Rochelle by 3 · median La Rochelle by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 36 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 12 is 28-16 as readily as 40-28.

Toulon
27-24average
Lyon
53%

3% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 6 to Toulon by 11 · median Toulon by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Montpellier Herault
25-23average
Stade Toulousain
54%

2% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 7 to Montpellier Herault by 10 · median Montpellier Herault by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 68 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 1 is 19-18 as readily as 29-28.

Stade Francais Paris
29-21average
Pau
65%

3% draw

32%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 2 to Stade Francais Paris by 17 · median Stade Francais Paris by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.

Perpignan
25-27average
Racing 92
37%

3% draw

61%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 10 to Perpignan by 5 · median Racing 92 by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Round 26

Bayonne
23-29average
Bordeaux Begles
27%

2% draw

71%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 14 to Bayonne by 1 · median Bordeaux Begles by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 34-29.

Castres Olympique
36-19average
US Montauban
87%

3% draw

11%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 4 to Castres Olympique by 28 · median Castres Olympique by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 14 is 28-14 as readily as 40-26.

Toulon
24-27average
Clermont Auvergne
35%

3% draw

63%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 9 to Toulon by 4 · median Clermont Auvergne by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Stade Toulousain
27-22average
La Rochelle
64%

3% draw

34%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 4 to Stade Toulousain by 14 · median Stade Toulousain by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Lyon
24-27average
Stade Francais Paris
36%

3% draw

61%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 12 to Lyon by 5 · median Stade Francais Paris by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 32-29.

Montpellier Herault
29-21average
Racing 92
66%

3% draw

32%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 2 to Montpellier Herault by 17 · median Montpellier Herault by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Perpignan
25-27average
Pau
36%

2% draw

62%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 9 to Perpignan by 4 · median Pau by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Rugby Tournament Predictor — unofficial, and not affiliated with any union, club or competition. About and sourcesForecasts are probabilities, not predictions of one result.

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