Top 14 2026

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 4 to Bordeaux Begles by 25 · median Bordeaux Begles by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 12 is 26-14 as readily as 37-25.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 6 to Stade Toulousain by 28 · median Stade Toulousain by 14

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 35 and 81 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 14 is 29-15 as readily as 41-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 7 to Pau by 10 · median Pau by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 10 to Bayonne by 2 · median Stade Toulousain by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 1 to La Rochelle by 22 · median La Rochelle by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 3 to Stade Francais Paris by 25 · median Stade Francais Paris by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 12 is 26-14 as readily as 37-25.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 9 to Castres Olympique by 7 · median Clermont Auvergne by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 32-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are US Montauban wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 26 to Bordeaux Begles by 4 · median Bordeaux Begles by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 36 and 85 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 13 is 29-16 as readily as 42-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 4 to Clermont Auvergne by 14 · median Clermont Auvergne by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 29 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 31-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 10 to Bayonne by 6 · median Clermont Auvergne by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Clermont Auvergne by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 1 to La Rochelle by 21 · median La Rochelle by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 4 to Toulon by 14 · median Toulon by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 1 to Racing 92 by 22 · median Racing 92 by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Racing 92 by 1 to Montpellier Herault by 18 · median Montpellier Herault by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.