United Rugby Championship 2027

Averaged across all simulations. Win % is the probability of finishing first. Learn more

Team	Win %	Avg Pts	Avg PD	Avg W	Avg D	Avg L
Leinster	33.9%	63.4	+146.7	12.5	0.5	5.1
Glasgow Warriors	14.2%	57.7	+91.7	11.3	0.5	6.3
Bulls	13.9%	56.6	+85.1	11.0	0.5	6.5
Stormers	10.6%	53.5	+63.1	10.3	0.4	7.3
Connacht	7.9%	52.9	+56.6	10.2	0.4	7.4
Lions	5.3%	50.0	+29.1	9.5	0.5	8.0
Munster	4.8%	49.3	+13.6	9.4	0.4	8.1
Sharks	3.8%	49.1	+25.8	9.3	0.4	8.3
Ulster	2.5%	47.7	+0.6	9.1	0.4	8.5
Cardiff Blues	1.5%	47.0	-1.4	8.8	0.4	8.7
Edinburgh	0.6%	43.3	-40.8	8.1	0.4	9.5
Ospreys	0.5%	42.1	-40.0	7.6	0.4	9.9
Benetton Treviso	0.4%	39.3	-61.5	7.0	0.5	10.5
Scarlets	0.0%	34.3	-115.0	5.9	0.4	11.7
Dragons	0.0%	33.6	-115.3	5.7	0.4	11.8
Zebre	0.0%	30.1	-138.5	4.8	0.5	12.8

Position Distribution

Percentage of simulations each team finished in each position. Darker cells indicate higher likelihood.

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8	#9	#10	#11	#12	#13	#14	#15	#16
Leinster	44.5%	20.2%	13.4%	7.6%	4.6%	3.8%	2.5%	1.4%	0.8%	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%	-	-	-	-
Glasgow Warriors	15.6%	19.3%	15.8%	11.9%	9.4%	7.1%	6.3%	4.7%	3.4%	2.2%	1.8%	1.2%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%	-
Bulls	13.6%	16.0%	14.6%	12.7%	10.0%	9.3%	6.5%	5.4%	4.2%	3.0%	2.0%	1.5%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	-
Stormers	7.3%	10.6%	11.1%	11.8%	10.8%	10.5%	8.5%	8.1%	6.5%	5.3%	3.6%	2.7%	1.9%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%
Connacht	6.9%	9.4%	10.4%	11.5%	10.2%	10.2%	9.0%	8.3%	7.0%	6.1%	4.0%	3.1%	2.0%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%
Lions	2.8%	5.3%	7.8%	8.7%	10.2%	9.6%	10.3%	9.3%	8.1%	8.1%	6.7%	5.3%	4.1%	2.2%	1.0%	0.3%
Munster	2.9%	4.9%	6.4%	8.3%	8.7%	9.3%	10.1%	9.3%	9.0%	8.0%	7.7%	6.4%	4.2%	2.7%	1.4%	0.7%
Sharks	2.4%	4.9%	6.3%	7.5%	9.1%	10.1%	9.4%	9.3%	9.2%	8.8%	7.5%	6.3%	4.8%	2.7%	1.2%	0.5%
Ulster	1.6%	3.6%	4.4%	6.8%	8.5%	8.3%	9.5%	9.4%	9.6%	10.0%	8.6%	7.4%	5.9%	3.5%	2.1%	0.8%
Cardiff Blues	1.2%	2.9%	4.7%	5.7%	7.7%	7.9%	9.0%	10.2%	10.1%	9.4%	8.6%	8.1%	6.6%	4.5%	2.4%	1.1%
Edinburgh	0.5%	1.6%	2.2%	3.3%	4.0%	5.4%	6.9%	7.1%	8.7%	10.3%	10.4%	11.5%	10.1%	8.7%	6.0%	3.3%
Ospreys	0.4%	1.0%	1.8%	2.5%	3.3%	3.9%	5.1%	7.3%	9.2%	10.2%	11.7%	11.1%	11.2%	9.5%	7.7%	4.2%
Benetton Treviso	0.2%	0.4%	0.8%	1.1%	2.0%	2.6%	3.7%	5.1%	6.9%	8.1%	10.8%	12.4%	13.7%	13.4%	11.8%	7.0%
Scarlets	0.1%	-	0.2%	0.4%	0.7%	1.0%	1.3%	2.3%	3.1%	4.2%	6.2%	8.9%	13.3%	17.9%	20.4%	20.0%
Dragons	-	-	0.1%	0.2%	0.6%	0.7%	1.3%	1.9%	2.8%	3.7%	6.5%	8.3%	12.3%	17.3%	21.6%	22.5%
Zebre	-	-	-	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	0.5%	0.8%	1.4%	2.0%	3.5%	5.7%	8.4%	14.5%	23.3%	39.3%

Each tie lists the teams that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome. Select a tie for the full list, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.