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European Challenge Cup 2027
Official site5,000 Monte Carlo simulations · 9 actual results locked in
The share of simulations in which the team reached each stage. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more
 Sharks | 97.5% | 73.0% | 50.8% | 31.3% | 17.7% |
 Toulon | 97.8% | 68.0% | 42.2% | 24.9% | 13.3% |
 Ulster | 95.9% | 63.4% | 37.0% | 19.1% | 9.3% |
 Ospreys | 95.6% | 55.7% | 29.2% | 13.9% | 6.5% |
 Bayonne | 93.2% | 53.3% | 27.0% | 13.0% | 5.8% |
 Harlequins | 87.8% | 47.8% | 24.7% | 12.1% | 5.5% |
 Edinburgh | 74.7% | 36.5% | 16.5% | 8.2% | 4.1% |
 Lyon | 72.4% | 36.1% | 15.3% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
 Castres Olympique | 88.1% | 43.4% | 17.5% | 6.5% | 2.2% |
 Dragons | 76.5% | 29.4% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
 Perpignan | 64.6% | 22.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
 Benetton Treviso | 56.4% | 20.1% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
 Scarlets | 69.2% | 24.6% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
 Cheetahs | 56.9% | 16.1% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
 Vannes | 39.3% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
 Newcastle Falcons | 16.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Zebre | 12.8% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Black Lion | 4.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
Joining from another competition
24 clubs enter at the Round of 16 after dropping out of the Champions Cup pool stage. They are in no pool here, so they have no row in the tables above — and they win this competition 28.2% of the time between them, which is what the Win column above is missing.
| Club | Arrives | Wins it |
|---|---|---|
| Leicester Tigers | 27.7% | 2.5% |
| Saracens | 23.1% | 2.5% |
| Bath Rugby | 25.3% | 1.8% |
| Bulls | 10.0% | 1.8% |
| Bristol Rugby | 22.2% | 1.7% |
| Gloucester Rugby | 24.4% | 1.7% |
| Northampton Saints | 8.8% | 1.6% |
| Bordeaux Begles | 17.8% | 1.5% |
| Connacht | 16.1% | 1.5% |
| Lions | 27.0% | 1.5% |
| Exeter Chiefs | 25.0% | 1.4% |
| Stade Francais Paris | 20.9% | 1.3% |
| Stade Toulousain | 4.1% | 1.0% |
| Montpellier Herault | 4.7% | 0.9% |
| Munster | 12.5% | 0.9% |
| Racing 92 | 26.2% | 0.9% |
| Cardiff Blues | 28.4% | 0.8% |
| Sale Sharks | 29.0% | 0.7% |
| La Rochelle | 9.6% | 0.6% |
| Pau | 7.8% | 0.5% |
| Stormers | 4.9% | 0.5% |
| Clermont Auvergne | 21.7% | 0.3% |
| Glasgow Warriors | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Leinster | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Round of 16
- Ulster22% · 17%
- Sharks22% · 18%
- Toulon20% · 16%
- Ospreys16% · 11%
- Harlequins16% · 8%
13 more
- Bayonne13% · 8%
- Dragons12% · 4%
- Perpignan11% · 2%
- Scarlets10% · 3%
- Castres Olympique9% · 4%
- Vannes9% · 1%
- Benetton Treviso9% · 2%
- Cheetahs8% · 1%
- Edinburgh7% · 2%
- Lyon6% · 2%
- Zebre5% · <1%
- Newcastle Falcons5% · <1%
- Black Lion2% · <1%
- Sharks21% · 16%
- Ulster19% · 14%
- Toulon18% · 13%
- Bayonne15% · 9%
- Ospreys15% · 9%
13 more
- Harlequins15% · 8%
- Castres Olympique12% · 6%
- Dragons12% · 4%
- Scarlets11% · 3%
- Benetton Treviso10% · 3%
- Perpignan10% · 3%
- Edinburgh10% · 3%
- Vannes9% · 1%
- Lyon9% · 4%
- Cheetahs7% · 2%
- Newcastle Falcons4% · <1%
- Zebre3% · <1%
- Black Lion1% · <1%
- Sharks22% · 17%
- Ulster19% · 13%
- Harlequins16% · 7%
- Ospreys15% · 8%
- Castres Olympique14% · 7%
13 more
- Bayonne14% · 9%
- Edinburgh13% · 5%
- Toulon12% · 8%
- Lyon12% · 6%
- Scarlets12% · 4%
- Benetton Treviso12% · 4%
- Dragons12% · 5%
- Perpignan10% · 3%
- Cheetahs8% · 2%
- Vannes7% · 1%
- Newcastle Falcons2% · <1%
- Zebre1% · <1%
- Black Lion<1% · <1%
- Ospreys16% · 9%
- Toulon13% · 9%
Sale Sharks10% · 4%- Harlequins9% · 5%
Lions8% · 4%
32 more
Cardiff Blues8% · 3%
Racing 928% · 3%
Clermont Auvergne8% · 3%- Edinburgh8% · 4%
- Castres Olympique7% · 4%
Bath Rugby7% · 4%- Bayonne7% · 4%
- Ulster7% · 4%
- Lyon7% · 4%
Leicester Tigers7% · 3%
Bristol Rugby7% · 4%- Sharks6% · 4%
Stade Francais Paris6% · 3%
Saracens6% · 3%- Dragons5% · 2%
Exeter Chiefs5% · 2%
Connacht4% · 2%- Scarlets4% · 1%
- Cheetahs4% · 1%
- Perpignan4% · 2%
Gloucester Rugby3% · 1%
Munster2% · <1%
Bordeaux Begles2% · 1%- Benetton Treviso2% · <1%
Northampton Saints2% · 1%
Bulls2% · 1%
La Rochelle2% · <1%
Pau2% · <1%- Vannes1% · <1%
Stade Toulousain<1% · <1%
Montpellier Herault<1% · <1%
Stormers<1% · <1%
- Bayonne12% · 6%
- Castres Olympique11% · 6%
- Toulon11% · 7%
- Ospreys8% · 5%
- Sharks8% · 6%
33 more
- Leicester Tigers8% · 4%
- Dragons8% · 3%
- Lions8% · 4%
- Sale Sharks8% · 3%
- Cardiff Blues8% · 3%
- Racing 927% · 3%
- Ulster7% · 4%
- Bath Rugby7% · 3%
- Edinburgh7% · 4%
- Exeter Chiefs6% · 3%
- Saracens6% · 4%
- Bristol Rugby6% · 3%
- Clermont Auvergne6% · 2%
- Lyon5% · 3%
- Harlequins5% · 3%
- Stade Francais Paris5% · 3%
- Gloucester Rugby5% · 3%
- Scarlets5% · 2%
- Perpignan5% · 2%
- Connacht4% · 2%
- Benetton Treviso4% · 2%
- Bordeaux Begles4% · 2%
- Cheetahs3% · 1%
- Munster3% · 1%
- Bulls2% · 1%
- La Rochelle2% · 1%
- Northampton Saints2% · 1%
- Pau2% · <1%
- Vannes2% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault1% · <1%
- Stormers1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain<1% · <1%
- Newcastle Falcons<1% · <1%
- Castres Olympique12% · 5%
- Bayonne11% · 6%
- Lyon9% · 4%
- Dragons8% · 3%
- Gloucester Rugby8% · 4%
34 more
- Exeter Chiefs8% · 4%
- Sharks7% · 5%
- Ulster7% · 4%
- Leicester Tigers7% · 4%
- Cardiff Blues7% · 3%
- Scarlets7% · 2%
- Toulon6% · 4%
- Sale Sharks6% · 3%
- Racing 926% · 3%
- Cheetahs6% · 2%
- Saracens6% · 3%
- Bath Rugby6% · 3%
- Perpignan6% · 2%
- Bordeaux Begles5% · 3%
- Lions5% · 3%
- Harlequins5% · 3%
- Bristol Rugby5% · 3%
- Stade Francais Paris5% · 3%
- Benetton Treviso5% · 2%
- Ospreys5% · 2%
- Clermont Auvergne5% · 2%
- Connacht4% · 2%
- Edinburgh4% · 2%
- La Rochelle3% · 2%
- Munster3% · 2%
- Bulls3% · 2%
- Pau2% · 1%
- Northampton Saints2% · 1%
- Stormers2% · 1%
- Vannes2% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain1% · <1%
- Newcastle Falcons1% · <1%
- Zebre<1% · <1%
- Edinburgh12% · 6%
- Toulon10% · 6%
- Harlequins10% · 5%
- Ospreys10% · 5%
- Castres Olympique9% · 4%
34 more
- Gloucester Rugby9% · 5%
- Lyon8% · 4%
- Bayonne7% · 4%
- Exeter Chiefs7% · 3%
- Bordeaux Begles7% · 3%
- Leicester Tigers6% · 3%
- Cardiff Blues6% · 2%
- Lions6% · 3%
- Bath Rugby6% · 3%
- Stade Francais Paris5% · 3%
- Cheetahs5% · 2%
- Saracens5% · 3%
- Sale Sharks5% · 2%
- Racing 925% · 2%
- Scarlets5% · 2%
- Dragons5% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby5% · 3%
- Ulster5% · 2%
- Sharks5% · 3%
- Perpignan5% · 2%
- Connacht4% · 2%
- Clermont Auvergne4% · 1%
- Munster4% · 2%
- Benetton Treviso4% · 1%
- Bulls3% · 2%
- Northampton Saints3% · 2%
- La Rochelle3% · 1%
- Vannes2% · <1%
- Pau2% · 1%
- Montpellier Herault2% · 1%
- Stormers2% · 1%
- Stade Toulousain1% · <1%
Leinster<1% · <1%
Glasgow Warriors<1% · <1%
- Lyon18% · 10%
- Scarlets17% · 8%
- Cheetahs16% · 5%
- Perpignan16% · 7%
- Edinburgh15% · 9%
13 more
- Dragons15% · 6%
- Castres Olympique14% · 7%
- Bayonne14% · 8%
- Harlequins14% · 9%
- Benetton Treviso12% · 5%
- Ospreys11% · 7%
- Ulster10% · 6%
- Toulon9% · 6%
- Vannes7% · 2%
- Sharks6% · 4%
- Newcastle Falcons3% · <1%
- Zebre3% · <1%
- Black Lion<1% · <1%
Quarter-finals
- Ulster22% · 14%
- Sharks22% · 17%
- Toulon22% · 15%
- Ospreys18% · 9%
- Harlequins17% · 9%
12 more
- Bayonne16% · 9%
- Lyon12% · 4%
- Castres Olympique11% · 4%
- Edinburgh11% · 5%
- Scarlets10% · 3%
- Dragons10% · 4%
- Perpignan9% · 3%
- Benetton Treviso7% · 2%
- Cheetahs6% · 2%
- Vannes4% · <1%
- Newcastle Falcons1% · <1%
- Zebre1% · <1%
- Sharks20% · 14%
- Toulon19% · 12%
- Ulster16% · 9%
- Ospreys15% · 7%
- Harlequins13% · 7%
33 more
- Bayonne13% · 7%
- Castres Olympique10% · 4%
- Edinburgh10% · 4%
- Lyon8% · 4%
- Dragons6% · 2%
- Scarlets5% · 2%
- Perpignan5% · 2%
- Gloucester Rugby5% · 2%
- Benetton Treviso4% · 2%
- Cheetahs4% · <1%
- Bordeaux Begles3% · 1%
- Exeter Chiefs3% · 1%
- Saracens3% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers3% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby3% · 1%
- Lions3% · <1%
- Bath Rugby3% · 2%
- Stade Francais Paris3% · 1%
- Cardiff Blues2% · 1%
- Vannes2% · <1%
- Racing 922% · <1%
- Connacht2% · 1%
- Bulls2% · 1%
- Northampton Saints2% · 1%
- Sale Sharks2% · <1%
- Munster2% · <1%
- La Rochelle1% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne1% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault1% · <1%
- Pau1% · <1%
- Stormers1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain<1% · <1%
- Newcastle Falcons<1% · <1%
- Sharks21% · 15%
- Ulster17% · 10%
- Bayonne15% · 8%
- Castres Olympique12% · 5%
- Toulon12% · 7%
33 more
- Ospreys10% · 6%
- Lyon10% · 5%
- Harlequins10% · 5%
- Dragons8% · 3%
- Edinburgh7% · 4%
- Benetton Treviso6% · 2%
- Scarlets6% · 2%
- Perpignan6% · 3%
- Gloucester Rugby4% · 2%
- Cheetahs4% · 1%
- Exeter Chiefs4% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers4% · 2%
- Bath Rugby3% · 1%
- Saracens3% · 2%
- Cardiff Blues3% · 1%
- Bordeaux Begles3% · 2%
- Sale Sharks3% · <1%
- Lions3% · 1%
- Racing 923% · 1%
- Bristol Rugby3% · 1%
- Stade Francais Paris3% · 1%
- Connacht2% · 1%
- Bulls2% · <1%
- Vannes2% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne2% · <1%
- Munster2% · <1%
- La Rochelle2% · <1%
- Northampton Saints1% · <1%
- Pau1% · <1%
- Stormers1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain<1% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault<1% · <1%
- Newcastle Falcons<1% · <1%
- Toulon15% · 9%
- Ospreys13% · 7%
- Sharks10% · 5%
- Bayonne10% · 4%
- Castres Olympique9% · 4%
32 more
- Edinburgh8% · 4%
- Ulster8% · 4%
- Lions8% · 4%
- Harlequins8% · 4%
- Leicester Tigers7% · 4%
- Bath Rugby7% · 4%
- Lyon7% · 3%
- Saracens7% · 4%
- Sale Sharks7% · 3%
- Bristol Rugby6% · 3%
- Cardiff Blues6% · 3%
- Racing 926% · 3%
- Stade Francais Paris6% · 3%
- Dragons6% · 2%
- Exeter Chiefs5% · 3%
- Clermont Auvergne4% · 2%
- Connacht4% · 3%
- Gloucester Rugby4% · 2%
- Perpignan4% · 1%
- Bordeaux Begles3% · 2%
- Scarlets3% · 1%
- Benetton Treviso3% · <1%
- Bulls2% · 2%
- Munster2% · 1%
- Northampton Saints2% · 1%
- Cheetahs2% · <1%
- La Rochelle2% · 1%
- Pau2% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault1% · <1%
- Vannes1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain1% · <1%
- Stormers1% · <1%
Semi-finals
- Toulon23% · 14%
- Sharks22% · 15%
- Ulster18% · 11%
- Ospreys16% · 8%
- Bayonne13% · 6%
32 more
- Harlequins13% · 6%
- Edinburgh9% · 5%
- Castres Olympique8% · 3%
- Lyon7% · 3%
- Dragons6% · 2%
- Saracens4% · 2%
- Bath Rugby4% · 2%
- Perpignan4% · 2%
- Lions4% · 2%
- Scarlets4% · 1%
- Leicester Tigers4% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby3% · 2%
- Stade Francais Paris3% · 1%
- Sale Sharks3% · <1%
- Exeter Chiefs3% · 1%
- Racing 923% · 1%
- Benetton Treviso3% · 1%
- Cardiff Blues3% · <1%
- Connacht3% · 1%
- Gloucester Rugby2% · <1%
- Cheetahs2% · <1%
- Bordeaux Begles2% · <1%
- Bulls2% · 1%
- Clermont Auvergne2% · <1%
- Northampton Saints1% · <1%
- Vannes1% · <1%
- La Rochelle1% · <1%
- Munster1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain<1% · <1%
- Pau<1% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault<1% · <1%
- Stormers<1% · <1%
- Sharks29% · 17%
- Ulster19% · 9%
- Toulon19% · 11%
- Bayonne14% · 7%
- Ospreys13% · 6%
32 more
- Harlequins12% · 6%
- Castres Olympique10% · 3%
- Lyon8% · 3%
- Edinburgh8% · 4%
- Dragons5% · 2%
- Perpignan5% · 1%
- Gloucester Rugby4% · 3%
- Benetton Treviso4% · 1%
- Scarlets4% · 1%
- Saracens3% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers3% · 2%
- Exeter Chiefs3% · 2%
- Bath Rugby3% · 2%
- Bordeaux Begles3% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby3% · 2%
- Connacht2% · 1%
- Lions2% · 1%
- Cardiff Blues2% · 1%
- Northampton Saints2% · 2%
- Cheetahs2% · <1%
- Racing 922% · 1%
- Stade Francais Paris2% · 1%
- Bulls2% · 2%
- Sale Sharks1% · <1%
- Munster1% · <1%
- La Rochelle1% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault1% · <1%
- Vannes1% · <1%
- Stormers1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain1% · <1%
- Pau1% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne<1% · <1%
Final
- Sharks31% · 18%
- Toulon25% · 13%
- Ulster19% · 9%
- Ospreys14% · 7%
- Bayonne13% · 6%
33 more
- Harlequins12% · 6%
- Edinburgh8% · 4%
- Lyon7% · 3%
- Castres Olympique7% · 2%
- Saracens4% · 3%
- Dragons4% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers4% · 3%
- Bath Rugby3% · 2%
- Gloucester Rugby3% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby3% · 2%
- Exeter Chiefs3% · 1%
- Perpignan3% · 1%
- Lions3% · 2%
- Connacht3% · 2%
- Bulls3% · 2%
- Bordeaux Begles3% · 2%
- Stade Francais Paris3% · 1%
- Northampton Saints3% · 2%
- Scarlets2% · <1%
- Benetton Treviso2% · <1%
- Racing 922% · <1%
- Cardiff Blues2% · <1%
- Munster1% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault1% · <1%
- Sale Sharks1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain1% · 1%
- La Rochelle1% · <1%
- Cheetahs1% · <1%
- Pau1% · <1%
- Stormers1% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne<1% · <1%
- Vannes<1% · <1%
- Glasgow Warriors<1% · <1%
All 36 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.