European Challenge Cup 2027

The share of simulations in which the team reached each stage. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more

Team	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion
Ulster	90.8%	59.7%	37.1%	21.0%	10.7%
Harlequins	84.6%	56.7%	34.8%	20.2%	10.6%
Sharks	83.3%	51.2%	30.0%	16.5%	9.0%
Edinburgh	78.4%	42.5%	21.2%	10.6%	4.8%
Ospreys	76.7%	40.0%	19.4%	8.3%	3.7%
Castres Olympique	77.1%	40.4%	19.1%	8.5%	3.3%
VAVannes	71.8%	35.0%	16.8%	7.6%	3.0%
Lyon	72.0%	35.0%	15.5%	6.8%	2.8%
Toulon	66.0%	29.3%	12.7%	5.9%	2.4%
Benetton Treviso	68.8%	32.1%	13.9%	5.6%	2.0%
BABayonne	72.1%	30.4%	12.4%	5.2%	1.9%
Dragons	63.7%	24.8%	8.7%	3.4%	1.1%
PEPerpignan	67.5%	24.8%	8.6%	2.7%	1.0%
Scarlets	56.3%	21.5%	7.5%	2.6%	0.8%
Cheetahs	54.9%	18.2%	5.6%	1.7%	0.5%
Zebre	51.1%	16.1%	5.5%	1.3%	0.3%
Newcastle Falcons	42.5%	12.0%	3.4%	0.9%	0.2%
BLBlack Lion	22.4%	4.1%	0.8%	0.1%	<0.1%

Each tie lists the teams that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome. Select a tie for the full list, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.