European Challenge Cup 2027

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Benetton Treviso wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 6 to Benetton Treviso by 10 · median Benetton Treviso by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Benetton Treviso by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 16 to Newcastle Falcons by 4 · median Castres Olympique by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ospreys wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 5 to Ospreys by 11 · median Ospreys by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ospreys by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sharks by 3 to Sharks by 21 · median Sharks by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sharks by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 37-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 5 to Toulon by 26 · median Toulon by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 13 is 28-15 as readily as 40-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ulster wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 4 to Ulster by 13 · median Ulster by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 69 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ulster by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Cheetahs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Dragons by 7 to Cheetahs by 9 · median Cheetahs by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Cheetahs by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Perpignan by 3 to Perpignan by 23 · median Perpignan by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Perpignan by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 37-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Vannes wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Edinburgh by 9 to Vannes by 6 · median Edinburgh by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Edinburgh by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Dragons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 7 to Dragons by 10 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Benetton Treviso by 14 to Newcastle Falcons by 4 · median Benetton Treviso by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Benetton Treviso by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 33-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Edinburgh wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 3 to Edinburgh by 14 · median Edinburgh by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Edinburgh by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 32-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scarlets wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 9 to Scarlets by 7 · median Lyon by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 32-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sharks by 2 to Sharks by 22 · median Sharks by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sharks by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ospreys by 1 to Toulon by 16 · median Toulon by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ulster by 7 to Perpignan by 8 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Vannes wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Vannes by 3 to Vannes by 23 · median Vannes by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Vannes by 11 is 26-15 as readily as 37-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Zebre wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Cheetahs by 6 to Zebre by 11 · median Zebre by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Zebre by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 7 to Harlequins by 10 · median Harlequins by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 4 to Bayonne by 25 · median Bayonne by 13

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bayonne by 13 is 27-14 as readily as 39-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Benetton Treviso wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sharks by 9 to Benetton Treviso by 7 · median Sharks by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sharks by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 32-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Scarlets by 1 to Castres Olympique by 20 · median Castres Olympique by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ospreys wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ospreys by 2 to Ospreys by 21 · median Ospreys by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ospreys by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ulster wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Ulster by 17 · median Ulster by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ulster by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Black Lion wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Edinburgh by 22 to Edinburgh by 2 · median Edinburgh by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 34 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Edinburgh by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 38-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Cheetahs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Perpignan by 6 to Cheetahs by 10 · median Cheetahs by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Cheetahs by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 4 to Lyon by 24 · median Lyon by 12

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 12 is 27-15 as readily as 38-26.