European Challenge Cup 2027

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Dragons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Perpignan by 3 to Dragons by 16 · median Dragons by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Dragons by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Edinburgh wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 1 to Edinburgh by 16 · median Edinburgh by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Edinburgh by 6 is 22-16 as readily as 33-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Black Lion wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ospreys by 15 to Black Lion by 1 · median Ospreys by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ospreys by 6 is 24-18 as readily as 36-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sharks by 6 to Lyon by 10 · median Lyon by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 32-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scarlets wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Newcastle Falcons by 1 to Scarlets by 23 · median Scarlets by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Scarlets by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Zebre wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ulster by 11 to Zebre by 5 · median Ulster by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ulster by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Cheetahs by 1 to Bayonne by 21 · median Bayonne by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bayonne by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Benetton Treviso by 4 to Castres Olympique by 12 · median Castres Olympique by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Vannes by 1 to Harlequins by 18 · median Harlequins by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Benetton Treviso wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 3 to Benetton Treviso by 16 · median Benetton Treviso by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Benetton Treviso by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 32-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 9 to Newcastle Falcons by 6 · median Castres Olympique by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 32-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ospreys wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 11 to Ospreys by 7 · median Harlequins by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sharks by 1 to Sharks by 21 · median Sharks by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sharks by 9 is 24-15 as readily as 35-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Toulon by 1 to Toulon by 22 · median Toulon by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 37-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ulster wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ulster by 1 to Ulster by 18 · median Ulster by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ulster by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Cheetahs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Dragons by 5 to Cheetahs by 13 · median Cheetahs by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Cheetahs by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Zebre by 1 to Perpignan by 19 · median Perpignan by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Perpignan by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Vannes wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Edinburgh by 6 to Vannes by 11 · median Vannes by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Vannes by 2 is 20-18 as readily as 30-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Dragons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bayonne by 5 to Dragons by 12 · median Dragons by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Dragons by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Newcastle Falcons wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Benetton Treviso by 9 to Newcastle Falcons by 6 · median Benetton Treviso by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Benetton Treviso by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 33-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Edinburgh wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Harlequins by 11 to Edinburgh by 6 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Scarlets wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lyon by 6 to Scarlets by 12 · median Scarlets by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Scarlets by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Castres Olympique by 2 to Sharks by 17 · median Sharks by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sharks by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 33-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Toulon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ospreys by 4 to Toulon by 15 · median Toulon by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 70 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Toulon by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 30-29.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Perpignan wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ulster by 9 to Perpignan by 6 · median Ulster by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ulster by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 32-31.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Vannes wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Vannes by 3 to Vannes by 23 · median Vannes by 11

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Vannes by 11 is 27-16 as readily as 38-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Zebre wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Cheetahs by 2 to Zebre by 19 · median Zebre by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Zebre by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Harlequins wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Harlequins by 18 · median Harlequins by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Harlequins by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bayonne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Zebre by 1 to Bayonne by 16 · median Bayonne by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bayonne by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Benetton Treviso wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Sharks by 9 to Benetton Treviso by 7 · median Sharks by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sharks by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Castres Olympique wins.

Middle half of outcomes: a draw to Castres Olympique by 20 · median Castres Olympique by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Castres Olympique by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ospreys wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Vannes by 3 to Ospreys by 13 · median Ospreys by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ospreys by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Ulster wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Ulster by 2 to Ulster by 20 · median Ulster by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Ulster by 10 is 25-15 as readily as 36-26.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Black Lion wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Edinburgh by 15 to Black Lion by 1 · median Edinburgh by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Edinburgh by 5 is 23-18 as readily as 35-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Cheetahs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Perpignan by 6 to Cheetahs by 11 · median Cheetahs by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Cheetahs by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lyon wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Newcastle Falcons by 1 to Lyon by 23 · median Lyon by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lyon by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 36-26.