← Tournaments
European Challenge Cup 2027
Official siteAssume a result and see what follows from it. The figures come from the same 5,000 simulations behind the published forecast, counting only the ones that went the way you assumed — so a combination that never came up has no answer.
Nothing assumed yet — these are the published forecasts.
Assume a result
Select a winner, or a draw. Select it again to release it. Fixtures already played cannot be changed.
Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4
What follows
Winning the tournament, and reaching the round of 16, against the same figures with nothing assumed.
| Team | Win | Change | Qualify | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulster | 10.7% | — | 90.8% | — |
| Harlequins | 10.6% | — | 84.6% | — |
| Sharks | 9.0% | — | 83.3% | — |
| Edinburgh | 4.8% | — | 78.4% | — |
| Ospreys | 3.7% | — | 76.7% | — |
| Castres Olympique | 3.3% | — | 77.1% | — |
| Vannes | 3.0% | — | 71.8% | — |
| Lyon | 2.8% | — | 72.0% | — |
| Toulon | 2.4% | — | 66.0% | — |
| Benetton Treviso | 2.0% | — | 68.8% | — |
| Bayonne | 1.9% | — | 72.1% | — |
| Dragons | 1.1% | — | 63.7% | — |
| Perpignan | 1.0% | — | 67.5% | — |
| Scarlets | 0.8% | — | 56.3% | — |
| Cheetahs | 0.5% | — | 54.9% | — |
| Zebre | 0.3% | — | 51.1% | — |
| Newcastle Falcons | 0.2% | — | 42.5% | — |
| Black Lion | <0.1% | — | 22.4% | — |