European Challenge Cup 2027

Assume a result and see what follows from it. The figures come from the same 5,000 simulations behind the published forecast, counting only the ones that went the way you assumed — so a combination that never came up has no answer.

Nothing assumed yet — these are the published forecasts.

Assume a result

Select a winner, or a draw. Select it again to release it. Fixtures already played cannot be changed.

Round 1

played

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

What follows

Winning the tournament, and reaching the round of 16, against the same figures with nothing assumed.

Team	Win	Change	Qualify	Change
Sharks	17.7%	—	97.5%	—
Toulon	13.3%	—	97.8%	—
Ulster	9.3%	—	95.9%	—
Ospreys	6.5%	—	95.6%	—
Bayonne	5.8%	—	93.2%	—
Harlequins	5.5%	—	87.8%	—
Edinburgh	4.1%	—	74.7%	—
Lyon	2.7%	—	72.4%	—
Castres Olympique	2.2%	—	88.1%	—
Dragons	1.6%	—	76.5%	—
Perpignan	1.0%	—	64.6%	—
Benetton Treviso	0.7%	—	56.4%	—
Scarlets	0.6%	—	69.2%	—
Cheetahs	0.4%	—	56.9%	—
Vannes	0.1%	—	39.3%	—
Newcastle Falcons	<0.1%	—	16.3%	—
Black Lion	<0.1%	—	4.7%	—
Zebre	<0.1%	—	12.8%	—