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European Champions Cup 2027
Official site5,000 Monte Carlo simulations · 12 actual results locked in
The share of simulations in which the team reached each stage. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more
 Leinster | 98.4% | 70.0% | 40.4% | 23.1% | 14.4% |
 Montpellier Herault | 93.9% | 64.7% | 38.7% | 22.5% | 11.8% |
 Stade Toulousain | 94.6% | 63.5% | 38.8% | 22.4% | 11.8% |
 Glasgow Warriors | 98.2% | 66.5% | 37.9% | 21.3% | 11.7% |
 Stormers | 94.8% | 60.1% | 34.4% | 17.8% | 8.3% |
 Northampton Saints | 87.9% | 52.8% | 28.3% | 15.3% | 7.9% |
 Bulls | 88.1% | 51.4% | 26.6% | 13.4% | 7.0% |
 La Rochelle | 88.7% | 49.7% | 23.2% | 11.1% | 4.8% |
 Bordeaux Begles | 75.4% | 39.4% | 18.3% | 8.7% | 4.0% |
 Pau | 91.0% | 40.9% | 17.3% | 7.9% | 3.8% |
 Saracens | 57.1% | 23.8% | 11.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
 Connacht | 76.1% | 32.7% | 13.8% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
 Munster | 80.9% | 33.8% | 12.9% | 5.3% | 2.0% |
 Gloucester Rugby | 58.8% | 25.1% | 10.0% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
 Stade Francais Paris | 59.9% | 20.3% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
 Bath Rugby | 42.3% | 15.6% | 6.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
 Bristol Rugby | 51.3% | 17.1% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
 Exeter Chiefs | 60.6% | 21.3% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
 Leicester Tigers | 51.2% | 16.0% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
 Racing 92 | 43.5% | 13.0% | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
 Lions | 33.7% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
 Cardiff Blues | 31.0% | 7.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
 Sale Sharks | 23.6% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
 Clermont Auvergne | 19.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome, so a tie is described by who turned up in it rather than by a pairing. Select any tie for everyone who reached it, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.
Each tie lists every team that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Both are shares of every simulation, so they are not a head-to-head between two sides.
Round of 16
- Glasgow Warriors27% · 20%
- Leinster22% · 17%
- Stormers12% · 8%
- Montpellier Herault11% · 8%
- Stade Toulousain10% · 7%
19 more
- Northampton Saints9% · 5%
- Pau8% · 5%
- Gloucester Rugby8% · 2%
- Bulls8% · 5%
- Connacht8% · 3%
- La Rochelle7% · 4%
- Bordeaux Begles7% · 3%
- Munster7% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers7% · 2%
- Saracens6% · 2%
- Stade Francais Paris6% · 1%
- Bristol Rugby6% · 1%
- Racing 925% · 1%
- Cardiff Blues5% · <1%
- Bath Rugby5% · 1%
- Sale Sharks5% · 1%
- Exeter Chiefs5% · <1%
- Lions5% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne4% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault16% · 12%
- Stade Toulousain16% · 12%
- Stormers14% · 9%
- Northampton Saints12% · 7%
- Glasgow Warriors11% · 8%
19 more
- Leinster10% · 8%
- Connacht10% · 4%
- Munster10% · 4%
- La Rochelle9% · 5%
- Bulls9% · 6%
- Bordeaux Begles9% · 4%
- Stade Francais Paris8% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers8% · 2%
- Pau7% · 4%
- Gloucester Rugby7% · 3%
- Saracens7% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby6% · 1%
- Racing 925% · 1%
- Bath Rugby5% · 2%
- Exeter Chiefs5% · 2%
- Lions5% · <1%
- Cardiff Blues4% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne4% · <1%
- Sale Sharks4% · <1%
- Stormers15% · 11%
- Stade Toulousain14% · 10%
- Montpellier Herault14% · 10%
- La Rochelle12% · 7%
- Northampton Saints11% · 7%
19 more
- Connacht11% · 5%
- Bulls11% · 7%
- Munster10% · 4%
- Saracens10% · 4%
- Bordeaux Begles9% · 6%
- Leicester Tigers8% · 2%
- Stade Francais Paris8% · 2%
- Glasgow Warriors7% · 5%
- Leinster7% · 5%
- Bristol Rugby6% · 2%
- Pau6% · 3%
- Exeter Chiefs6% · 2%
- Bath Rugby6% · 2%
- Lions6% · 1%
- Racing 926% · 1%
- Gloucester Rugby5% · 2%
- Cardiff Blues5% · 1%
- Sale Sharks4% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne4% · <1%
- Stormers16% · 10%
- Stade Toulousain14% · 9%
- Montpellier Herault12% · 8%
- La Rochelle12% · 7%
- Connacht11% · 6%
19 more
- Munster11% · 5%
- Northampton Saints11% · 6%
- Bulls11% · 7%
- Bordeaux Begles10% · 6%
- Saracens10% · 4%
- Leicester Tigers9% · 3%
- Exeter Chiefs9% · 3%
- Pau7% · 3%
- Bristol Rugby7% · 3%
- Stade Francais Paris7% · 2%
- Gloucester Rugby7% · 3%
- Racing 926% · 2%
- Bath Rugby6% · 2%
- Glasgow Warriors6% · 3%
- Lions5% · 1%
- Leinster5% · 3%
- Cardiff Blues4% · 1%
- Sale Sharks3% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne3% · <1%
- Leinster26% · 20%
- Glasgow Warriors23% · 17%
- Pau18% · 10%
- Munster10% · 3%
- La Rochelle9% · 5%
19 more
- Bulls9% · 5%
- Northampton Saints9% · 4%
- Bristol Rugby8% · 2%
- Stade Toulousain8% · 5%
- Stade Francais Paris7% · 2%
- Montpellier Herault7% · 4%
- Racing 927% · 2%
- Connacht7% · 3%
- Exeter Chiefs7% · 2%
- Stormers7% · 4%
- Saracens6% · 2%
- Bath Rugby6% · 2%
- Bordeaux Begles5% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers5% · 2%
- Gloucester Rugby4% · 2%
- Cardiff Blues4% · <1%
- Sale Sharks4% · <1%
- Lions3% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne1% · <1%
- Pau14% · 6%
- Bulls14% · 8%
- Northampton Saints14% · 9%
- La Rochelle13% · 7%
- Stade Toulousain12% · 8%
19 more
- Montpellier Herault12% · 8%
- Munster12% · 5%
- Connacht11% · 5%
- Leinster10% · 7%
- Exeter Chiefs9% · 3%
- Glasgow Warriors9% · 6%
- Stormers9% · 5%
- Stade Francais Paris8% · 3%
- Bordeaux Begles7% · 3%
- Saracens7% · 3%
- Bristol Rugby7% · 2%
- Gloucester Rugby6% · 3%
- Bath Rugby6% · 2%
- Racing 926% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers5% · 2%
- Lions4% · 1%
- Cardiff Blues4% · 1%
- Sale Sharks2% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne1% · <1%
- Bulls14% · 8%
- Pau14% · 5%
- La Rochelle13% · 7%
- Bordeaux Begles13% · 6%
- Northampton Saints13% · 8%
19 more
- Munster12% · 6%
- Montpellier Herault12% · 8%
- Stade Toulousain11% · 7%
- Stormers11% · 6%
- Connacht11% · 5%
- Exeter Chiefs10% · 4%
- Gloucester Rugby10% · 4%
- Leinster8% · 5%
- Stade Francais Paris8% · 4%
- Glasgow Warriors7% · 4%
- Saracens7% · 3%
- Bristol Rugby6% · 3%
- Bath Rugby5% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers4% · 2%
- Racing 924% · 2%
- Lions4% · 1%
- Cardiff Blues3% · <1%
- Sale Sharks2% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne1% · <1%
- Pau17% · 6%
- Bordeaux Begles15% · 9%
- Bulls13% · 7%
- La Rochelle13% · 7%
- Gloucester Rugby12% · 6%
19 more
- Stormers11% · 7%
- Leinster11% · 5%
- Northampton Saints11% · 6%
- Munster10% · 5%
- Exeter Chiefs10% · 4%
- Glasgow Warriors10% · 5%
- Montpellier Herault10% · 6%
- Stade Toulousain9% · 6%
- Connacht8% · 4%
- Stade Francais Paris7% · 3%
- Saracens6% · 3%
- Leicester Tigers5% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby5% · 2%
- Racing 924% · 2%
- Bath Rugby4% · 2%
- Cardiff Blues3% · 1%
- Lions3% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne2% · <1%
- Sale Sharks1% · <1%
Quarter-finals
- Glasgow Warriors25% · 16%
- Leinster23% · 15%
- Stormers15% · 8%
- Montpellier Herault14% · 8%
- Stade Toulousain13% · 7%
19 more
- Bulls12% · 6%
- Northampton Saints12% · 6%
- Bordeaux Begles11% · 5%
- La Rochelle11% · 5%
- Pau11% · 5%
- Gloucester Rugby8% · 3%
- Munster7% · 2%
- Connacht6% · 2%
- Exeter Chiefs5% · 1%
- Saracens5% · 2%
- Stade Francais Paris5% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers4% · 1%
- Bristol Rugby4% · 1%
- Racing 923% · 1%
- Bath Rugby3% · 1%
- Cardiff Blues2% · <1%
- Lions2% · <1%
- Sale Sharks1% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne<1% · <1%
- Montpellier Herault20% · 12%
- Stade Toulousain19% · 12%
- Stormers16% · 9%
- Northampton Saints15% · 8%
- Bulls14% · 7%
19 more
- Leinster13% · 8%
- La Rochelle12% · 6%
- Glasgow Warriors12% · 7%
- Bordeaux Begles11% · 5%
- Munster10% · 4%
- Pau9% · 4%
- Connacht9% · 3%
- Gloucester Rugby7% · 3%
- Saracens6% · 3%
- Stade Francais Paris6% · 2%
- Exeter Chiefs5% · 2%
- Bath Rugby4% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby4% · 1%
- Leicester Tigers4% · 1%
- Racing 923% · <1%
- Lions2% · <1%
- Cardiff Blues2% · <1%
- Sale Sharks1% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne<1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain18% · 12%
- Montpellier Herault18% · 11%
- Northampton Saints16% · 9%
- Stormers16% · 9%
- Bulls15% · 7%
19 more
- La Rochelle14% · 7%
- Leinster12% · 7%
- Glasgow Warriors11% · 6%
- Connacht9% · 4%
- Pau9% · 4%
- Bordeaux Begles9% · 5%
- Munster9% · 3%
- Saracens7% · 4%
- Stade Francais Paris6% · 2%
- Exeter Chiefs6% · 2%
- Gloucester Rugby5% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby4% · 1%
- Leicester Tigers4% · 2%
- Bath Rugby4% · 2%
- Racing 923% · 1%
- Lions2% · <1%
- Cardiff Blues2% · <1%
- Sale Sharks1% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne<1% · <1%
- Leinster23% · 11%
- Glasgow Warriors20% · 9%
- Stormers14% · 9%
- Stade Toulousain14% · 8%
- Montpellier Herault13% · 8%
19 more
- Pau12% · 5%
- La Rochelle12% · 6%
- Bulls11% · 6%
- Northampton Saints11% · 6%
- Bordeaux Begles9% · 4%
- Connacht9% · 4%
- Munster8% · 4%
- Saracens7% · 3%
- Exeter Chiefs5% · 2%
- Bristol Rugby5% · 2%
- Gloucester Rugby5% · 2%
- Stade Francais Paris5% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers5% · 2%
- Bath Rugby4% · 2%
- Racing 924% · 2%
- Lions2% · <1%
- Cardiff Blues2% · <1%
- Sale Sharks2% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne<1% · <1%
Semi-finals
- Leinster26% · 15%
- Glasgow Warriors25% · 15%
- Stormers17% · 9%
- Montpellier Herault16% · 9%
- Stade Toulousain16% · 9%
18 more
- Bulls12% · 6%
- Northampton Saints12% · 6%
- La Rochelle11% · 5%
- Pau10% · 4%
- Bordeaux Begles9% · 4%
- Connacht7% · 3%
- Munster6% · 2%
- Saracens5% · 2%
- Gloucester Rugby5% · 2%
- Leicester Tigers4% · 1%
- Exeter Chiefs4% · 1%
- Bristol Rugby4% · 1%
- Stade Francais Paris4% · 1%
- Bath Rugby3% · 2%
- Racing 923% · <1%
- Lions2% · <1%
- Cardiff Blues1% · <1%
- Sale Sharks1% · <1%
- Stade Toulousain23% · 14%
- Montpellier Herault23% · 13%
- Stormers18% · 9%
- Northampton Saints17% · 9%
- Bulls14% · 7%
19 more
- Leinster14% · 8%
- Glasgow Warriors13% · 7%
- La Rochelle13% · 6%
- Bordeaux Begles9% · 5%
- Pau8% · 4%
- Connacht7% · 3%
- Munster7% · 3%
- Saracens6% · 3%
- Gloucester Rugby5% · 2%
- Stade Francais Paris5% · 2%
- Exeter Chiefs4% · 2%
- Bath Rugby4% · 1%
- Leicester Tigers3% · 1%
- Bristol Rugby3% · <1%
- Racing 922% · <1%
- Lions1% · <1%
- Cardiff Blues1% · <1%
- Sale Sharks<1% · <1%
- Clermont Auvergne<1% · <1%
Final
- Leinster23% · 14%
- Montpellier Herault23% · 12%
- Stade Toulousain22% · 12%
- Glasgow Warriors21% · 12%
- Stormers18% · 8%
18 more
- Northampton Saints15% · 8%
- Bulls13% · 7%
- La Rochelle11% · 5%
- Bordeaux Begles9% · 4%
- Pau8% · 4%
- Munster5% · 2%
- Connacht5% · 2%
- Saracens5% · 2%
- Gloucester Rugby4% · 2%
- Stade Francais Paris3% · 1%
- Bath Rugby3% · 1%
- Exeter Chiefs3% · <1%
- Leicester Tigers2% · <1%
- Bristol Rugby2% · 1%
- Racing 922% · <1%
- Lions1% · <1%
- Cardiff Blues<1% · <1%
- Sale Sharks<1% · <1%
All 48 pool fixtures — average scores and win probabilities, on the Matches tab.