European Champions Cup 2027

The share of simulations in which the team reached each stage. 3rd is winning the bronze final, which is a branch off the semi-finals rather than a step towards the trophy. Learn more

Team	R16	QF	SF	Final	Champion
Leinster	88.3%	57.8%	35.7%	22.6%	13.3%
Bordeaux Begles	88.6%	56.1%	33.5%	19.1%	10.2%
Stade Toulousain	78.3%	46.7%	26.5%	14.1%	7.4%
Northampton Saints	81.0%	47.2%	25.3%	13.9%	7.3%
Montpellier Herault	78.0%	44.6%	25.4%	13.2%	7.0%
Leicester Tigers	72.0%	40.0%	21.0%	11.1%	5.9%
Glasgow Warriors	78.5%	42.7%	21.6%	10.6%	5.1%
Exeter Chiefs	70.5%	35.1%	17.5%	8.8%	4.4%
Stormers	73.5%	37.1%	17.9%	8.5%	4.1%
Saracens	69.2%	35.0%	17.4%	8.2%	4.1%
Bath Rugby	68.4%	35.6%	17.5%	8.5%	4.0%
Stade Francais Paris	71.9%	35.7%	17.7%	8.4%	4.0%
Bulls	64.0%	31.9%	16.5%	8.0%	4.0%
Connacht	63.9%	29.9%	13.4%	6.0%	2.9%
Racing 92	78.0%	36.2%	15.5%	6.9%	2.8%
Munster	71.6%	31.5%	12.9%	6.1%	2.8%
La Rochelle	63.0%	30.5%	14.2%	6.0%	2.8%
Clermont Auvergne	58.5%	26.1%	11.8%	5.2%	2.2%
Lions	57.3%	25.0%	10.9%	4.5%	2.2%
Pau	52.7%	19.6%	8.6%	3.5%	1.3%
BRBristol Rugby	42.2%	14.2%	4.8%	1.8%	0.7%
Sale Sharks	48.4%	16.2%	5.7%	1.9%	0.6%
Gloucester Rugby	43.6%	13.8%	4.7%	1.7%	0.5%
Cardiff Blues	38.6%	11.6%	3.8%	1.3%	0.5%

Each tie lists the teams that reached it. The first figure is how often the team reaches the tie; the second, shaded darker, how often it reaches the tie and wins. Nobody is fixed into a tie — who plays whom is itself a simulated outcome. Select a tie for the full list, or switch to Likely path for the bracket drawn as a tree.