48 pool fixtures · 5,000 simulations · knockout ties are on the overview, in the bracket

Round 1

Gloucester Rugby
36 – 36played
Bordeaux Begles

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Bath Rugby
14 – 32played
Montpellier Herault

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Bulls
56 – 20played
Stade Francais Paris

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Clermont Auvergne
23 – 48played
Leinster

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Connacht
45 – 36played
Saracens

Conditions, squads and match statistics

La Rochelle
31 – 14played
Lions

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Munster
33 – 25played
Racing 92

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Sale Sharks
27 – 47played
Glasgow Warriors

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Stormers
49 – 12played
Bristol Rugby

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Northampton Saints
28 – 12played
Cardiff Blues

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Pau
41 – 17played
Leicester Tigers

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Stade Toulousain
43 – 40played
Exeter Chiefs

Conditions, squads and match statistics

Round 2

Glasgow Warriors
29-22average
Pau
67%

2% draw

31%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Glasgow Warriors wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 2 to Glasgow Warriors by 16 · median Glasgow Warriors by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Glasgow Warriors by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Stade Francais Paris
27-25average
Northampton Saints
55%

2% draw

43%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 6 to Stade Francais Paris by 10 · median Stade Francais Paris by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 31-30.

Bristol Rugby
27-23average
Munster
60%

2% draw

37%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Munster by 5 to Bristol Rugby by 12 · median Bristol Rugby by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 31-28.

Cardiff Blues
26-25average
Bath Rugby
53%

3% draw

45%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Cardiff Blues wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 7 to Cardiff Blues by 9 · median Cardiff Blues by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Cardiff Blues by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 32-31.

Leicester Tigers
33-20average
Clermont Auvergne
81%

3% draw

16%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leicester Tigers by 2 to Leicester Tigers by 21 · median Leicester Tigers by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leicester Tigers by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 37-27.

Leinster
34-20average
Sale Sharks
81%

3% draw

17%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leinster wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leinster by 2 to Leinster by 22 · median Leinster by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 77 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leinster by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 37-27.

Lions
25-28average
Stade Toulousain
35%

2% draw

63%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lions wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 12 to Lions by 4 · median Stade Toulousain by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 4 is 23-19 as readily as 34-30.

Montpellier Herault
28-23average
Bulls
68%

2% draw

30%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bulls by 2 to Montpellier Herault by 14 · median Montpellier Herault by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Saracens
27-23average
La Rochelle
62%

3% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 4 to Saracens by 13 · median Saracens by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Bordeaux Begles
26-24average
Stormers
56%

3% draw

41%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stormers by 6 to Bordeaux Begles by 10 · median Bordeaux Begles by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 31-29.

Exeter Chiefs
27-25average
Connacht
57%

3% draw

40%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Connacht by 6 to Exeter Chiefs by 10 · median Exeter Chiefs by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Racing 92
26-25average
Gloucester Rugby
55%

3% draw

42%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 7 to Racing 92 by 9 · median Racing 92 by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Round 3

Glasgow Warriors
32-20average
Leicester Tigers
78%

3% draw

19%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Glasgow Warriors wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Glasgow Warriors by 1 to Glasgow Warriors by 20 · median Glasgow Warriors by 9

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Glasgow Warriors by 9 is 25-16 as readily as 36-27.

Bulls
29-22average
Bath Rugby
69%

2% draw

29%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bulls wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bath Rugby by 2 to Bulls by 15 · median Bulls by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bulls by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Connacht
25-27average
Stade Toulousain
41%

2% draw

57%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Connacht wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Toulousain by 9 to Connacht by 6 · median Stade Toulousain by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Exeter Chiefs
26-25average
La Rochelle
57%

3% draw

40%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Exeter Chiefs wins.

Middle half of outcomes: La Rochelle by 6 to Exeter Chiefs by 10 · median Exeter Chiefs by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Exeter Chiefs by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Gloucester Rugby
27-25average
Stormers
53%

3% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Gloucester Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stormers by 6 to Gloucester Rugby by 10 · median Gloucester Rugby by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Gloucester Rugby by 1 is 21-20 as readily as 32-31.

Leinster
30-22average
Pau
72%

3% draw

25%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leinster wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 1 to Leinster by 16 · median Leinster by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 74 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Leinster by 7 is 24-17 as readily as 35-28.

Montpellier Herault
29-23average
Northampton Saints
59%

3% draw

39%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Montpellier Herault wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Northampton Saints by 4 to Montpellier Herault by 15 · median Montpellier Herault by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 3 is 22-19 as readily as 33-30.

Stade Francais Paris
31-21average
Cardiff Blues
80%

2% draw

18%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Francais Paris wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 1 to Stade Francais Paris by 18 · median Stade Francais Paris by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Francais Paris by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Bordeaux Begles
30-21average
Munster
69%

2% draw

29%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bordeaux Begles wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Munster by 2 to Bordeaux Begles by 17 · median Bordeaux Begles by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bordeaux Begles by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Racing 92
28-23average
Bristol Rugby
57%

2% draw

41%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Racing 92 wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bristol Rugby by 5 to Racing 92 by 13 · median Racing 92 by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Racing 92 by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Sale Sharks
28-22average
Clermont Auvergne
62%

2% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Sale Sharks wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Clermont Auvergne by 3 to Sale Sharks by 15 · median Sale Sharks by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 30 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Sale Sharks by 4 is 21-17 as readily as 32-28.

Saracens
30-21average
Lions
71%

3% draw

26%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Saracens wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Lions by 1 to Saracens by 17 · median Saracens by 7

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Saracens by 7 is 23-16 as readily as 34-27.

Round 4

Cardiff Blues
26-28average
Montpellier Herault
39%

3% draw

58%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Cardiff Blues wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Montpellier Herault by 10 to Cardiff Blues by 6 · median Montpellier Herault by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Montpellier Herault by 2 is 22-20 as readily as 33-31.

Northampton Saints
29-22average
Bulls
67%

2% draw

31%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Northampton Saints wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bulls by 2 to Northampton Saints by 17 · median Northampton Saints by 6

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Northampton Saints by 6 is 23-17 as readily as 34-28.

Bristol Rugby
26-25average
Bordeaux Begles
54%

3% draw

44%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bristol Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Bordeaux Begles by 7 to Bristol Rugby by 9 · median Bristol Rugby by 1

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bristol Rugby by 1 is 20-19 as readily as 31-30.

Clermont Auvergne
25-30average
Glasgow Warriors
34%

2% draw

64%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Clermont Auvergne wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Glasgow Warriors by 14 to Clermont Auvergne by 3 · median Glasgow Warriors by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 78 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Glasgow Warriors by 4 is 23-19 as readily as 35-31.

La Rochelle
28-22average
Connacht
64%

2% draw

34%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are La Rochelle wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Connacht by 3 to La Rochelle by 15 · median La Rochelle by 5

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 71 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a La Rochelle by 5 is 22-17 as readily as 33-28.

Leicester Tigers
26-24average
Leinster
50%

2% draw

48%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Leicester Tigers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Leinster by 7 to Leicester Tigers by 10 · median a draw

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a a draw is 20-20 as readily as 31-31.

Lions
26-25average
Exeter Chiefs
57%

2% draw

41%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Lions wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Exeter Chiefs by 6 to Lions by 9 · median Lions by 2

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Lions by 2 is 21-19 as readily as 32-30.

Munster
28-23average
Gloucester Rugby
62%

3% draw

35%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Munster wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Gloucester Rugby by 4 to Munster by 13 · median Munster by 4

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 73 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Munster by 4 is 22-18 as readily as 32-28.

Pau
32-21average
Sale Sharks
76%

3% draw

21%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Pau wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Pau by 1 to Pau by 20 · median Pau by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 33 and 76 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Pau by 8 is 25-17 as readily as 36-28.

Stormers
33-20average
Racing 92
77%

3% draw

20%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stormers wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stormers by 1 to Stormers by 22 · median Stormers by 10

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 32 and 75 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stormers by 10 is 26-16 as readily as 37-27.

Bath Rugby
27-23average
Stade Francais Paris
61%

3% draw

37%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Bath Rugby wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Stade Francais Paris by 5 to Bath Rugby by 12 · median Bath Rugby by 3

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Bath Rugby by 3 is 21-18 as readily as 32-29.

Stade Toulousain
30-21average
Saracens
71%

3% draw

26%

Winning margin across 5,000 simulations. Bars right of nil are Stade Toulousain wins.

Middle half of outcomes: Saracens by 1 to Stade Toulousain by 19 · median Stade Toulousain by 8

These are gaps, not scorelines. The combined score is drawn separately and lands between 31 and 72 points in most runs, so one bar covers many scores — a Stade Toulousain by 8 is 24-16 as readily as 35-27.

Rugby Tournament Predictor — unofficial, and not affiliated with any union, club or competition. About and sourcesForecasts are probabilities, not predictions of one result.

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