Assume a result and see what follows from it. The figures come from the same 5,000 simulations behind the published forecast, counting only the ones that went the way you assumed — so a combination that never came up has no answer.

Nothing assumed yet — these are the published forecasts.

Assume a result

Select a winner, or a draw. Select it again to release it. Fixtures already played cannot be changed.

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

What follows

Winning the tournament, and reaching the round of 16, against the same figures with nothing assumed.

TeamWinChangeQualifyChange
Leinster13.3%88.3%
Bordeaux Begles10.2%88.6%
Stade Toulousain7.4%78.3%
Northampton Saints7.3%81.0%
Montpellier Herault7.0%78.0%
Leicester Tigers5.9%72.0%
Glasgow Warriors5.1%78.5%
Exeter Chiefs4.4%70.5%
Saracens4.1%69.2%
Stormers4.1%73.5%
Bulls4.0%64.0%
Stade Francais Paris4.0%71.9%
Bath Rugby4.0%68.4%
Connacht2.9%63.9%
La Rochelle2.8%63.0%
Racing 922.8%78.0%
Munster2.8%71.6%
Clermont Auvergne2.2%58.5%
Lions2.2%57.3%
Pau1.3%52.7%
Bristol Rugby0.7%42.2%
Sale Sharks0.6%48.4%
Cardiff Blues0.5%38.6%
Gloucester Rugby0.5%43.6%
Rugby Tournament Predictor — unofficial, and not affiliated with any union, club or competition. About and sourcesForecasts are probabilities, not predictions of one result.

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