New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 0
10 July 1999Carisbrook, Dunedin
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 118 m
- Temperature
- 2.3 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Robin Brooke
- 6Andrew Blowers
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Taine Randell(c)
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Tana Umaga-18.3
- 12Daryl Gibson
- 13Alama Ieremia
- 14Christian Cullen
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Royce Willis
- 17Jonah Lomu
- 18Tony Brown
- 19Dylan Mika
- 20Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 21Greg Feek
- 22Mark Hammett
South Africa
- 1Os du Randt+3.9
- 2Naka Drotske
- 3Cobus Visagie
- 4Krynauw Otto
- 5Mark Andrews
- 6Corne Krige-5.2
- 7Andre Venter
- 8Gary Teichmann(c)
- 9Dave von Hoesslin
- 10Gaffie du Toit
- 11Pieter Rossouw
- 12Pieter Muller
- 13Japie Mulder
- 14Breyton Paulse-2.6
- 15Percy Montgomery+0.2
Replacements
- 16Andre Vos
- 17Selborne Boome
- 18Ollie le Roux
- 19Robbie Fleck
- 20Braam van Straaten
- 21Willie Meyer
- 22Werner Swanepoel
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.