New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 15
24 July 1999Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 10.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 12 of the 44 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Carl Hoeft-11.7
- 2Anton Oliver-0.3
- 3Kees Meeuws+2.5
- 4Norm Maxwell
- 5Robin Brooke
- 6Dylan Mika
- 7Josh Kronfeld
- 8Taine Randell(c)
- 9Justin Marshall
- 10Andrew Mehrtens-8.3
- 11Tana Umaga-18.3
- 12Daryl Gibson
- 13Alama Ieremia
- 14Christian Cullen
- 15Jeff Wilson
Replacements
- 16Greg Feek
- 17Jonah Lomu
- 18Royce Willis
- 19Tony Brown
- 20Andrew Blowers
- 21Byron Kelleher-16.4
- 22Mark Hammett
Australia
- 1Glen Panoho
- 2Jeremy Paul+10.0
- 3Patricio Noriega
- 4David Giffin+0.8
- 5John Welborn
- 6Matt Cockbain
- 7David Wilson(c)
- 8Tiaan Strauss
- 9George Gregan
- 10Tim Horan
- 11Joe Roff-6.5
- 12Nathan Grey+10.3
- 13Dan Herbert
- 14Ben Tune-0.3
- 15Matt Burke
Replacements
- 16Toutai Kefu
- 17Dan Crowley
- 18Mark Connors
- 19Jason Little
- 20Chris Latham+0.2
- 21Chris Whitaker
- 22Phil Kearns
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.