England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
67 – 7
2 October 1999Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 12.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.1 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 45 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Jason Leonard
- 2Richard Cockerill
- 3Phil Vickery+2.7
- 4Martin Johnson(c)+2.1
- 5Danny Grewcock+4.0
- 6Richard Hill
- 7Neil Back
- 8Lawrence Dallaglio+8.7
- 9Matt Dawson
- 10Jonny Wilkinson+7.0
- 11Austin Healey
- 12Phil de Glanville
- 13Will Greenwood
- 14Dan Luger-5.9
- 15Matt Perry
Replacements
- 16Nick Beal
- 17Jerry Guscott
- 18Paul Grayson+7.3
- 19Martin Corry-6.2
- 20Darren Garforth
- 21Graham Rowntree+1.5
- 22Phil Greening
Italy
- 1Federico Pucciariello
- 2Alessandro Moscardi
- 3Franco Properzi-Curti
- 4Walter Cristofoletto
- 5Mark Giacheri
- 6Massimo Giovanelli(c)
- 7Mauro Bergamasco+0.1
- 8Orazio Arancio
- 9Alessandro Troncon-7.4
- 10Diego Dominguez
- 11Nicolas Zisti
- 12Luca Martin
- 13Cristian Stoica+7.0
- 13Cristian Stoica
- 14Paolo Vaccari
- 15Matt Pini
Replacements
- 16Nicola Mazzucato-0.6
- 17Francesco Mazzariol
- 18Giampiero Mazzi
- 19Andrea de Rossi+3.9
- 20Carlo Checchinato
- 21Andrea Castellani
- 22Andrea Moretti
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.